Our ETF Research

Most portfolios don't fail at the holdings. They fail at the investor — chasing performance after the move, abandoning discipline at the drawdown, mistaking conviction for evidence. The research here is built around that asymmetry.

No forecasts. No price targets. No "buy this now." We report on what the data is doing — breadth, dispersion, factor regime, trend state — and let the numbers carry the narrative. We focus on clarity and simplicity.

Subscribe to follow the research. We'll send a note when the tape gives us something worth your attention. Discipline over drama. Evidence over emotion.

New research posts daily, around 5:30 PM New York time

Equity ended June with a 45pp price-relative gap, as cyclicals, size, and Asia led while Treasuries and precious metals lost ground.

Tech and growth reclaimed the equity lead as 45 of 59 ETFs held above their 20D MA, but only 36 of 58 beat SPY at the close.

Semiconductors SMH rose 3.8% as growth over duration extended, while ETHA fell 2.9% and TLT lagged across the tape.

After a Bullish Belt Hold, SPY rose 64.9% of the time over the next month globally vs 68.4% in QHI Greed (n=19).

As of June 29, 41 of 59 ETFs (69%, +25.4pp) in our ETF universe sit above their 20-day moving average (20D MA).

Semiconductors SMH rose 3.3% as tech and Taiwan led while gold and miners lagged across the session.

After a Morning Star, SPY rose 57.6% of the time over the next month globally vs 20.0% in QHI Greed (n=5).