Regime Trends: Equity Leaders Thin Out Under Broad August Participation

A 54pp price-relative gap leaves the equity regime broad and selective.

Relative equity leadership contracted into the August 31 close. Across the ETF universe, 53 of 59 equity ETFs (90%, unchanged on the month) hold above their 10-month moving average 10M MA, while only 21 of 58 (36%, -19.0pp) hold above their 10-month ratio moving average versus the S&P 500 SPY, 10M ratio MA vs SPY. Emerging markets EEM and Nasdaq 100 QQQ joined the relative winners. Low-volatility, dividend, and developed ex-US exposures filled the laggard cluster. The 54pp price-relative gap leaves the equity regime broad in price and selective in leadership.

Fixed income participation is limited to 6 of 17 ETFs above their 10M MA, concentrated in high-yield credit, EM debt, and short duration. High-yield credit and short duration outperformed the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Treasuries, investment grade, and international aggregate lagged. The bond split centers on rate sensitivity.

Specialty participation is wide in price and narrow versus the S&P 500 SPY, with Gold Miners GDX and biotech leading the relative winners while real estate and infrastructure lag from above their 10M MA. Crypto trusts crossed above their 10M MA on price. Agriculture Basket DBA joined broad commodity exposure among the names outperforming the S&P 500 SPY. Specialty and commodity leadership concentrates in miners, biotech, and agriculture-linked exposures.

10-Month Regime Breadth

Key Takeaways

Gold Miners GDX, up 37.70% over the trailing 10-month window, crossed above its 10-month moving average. GDX also crossed above its 10M ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY, and specialty cross-timescale alignment is 60%, which places miners among the few specialty groups with both price and relative confirmation.

Copper Miners COPX crossed above its 10M ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY after a 36.17% 10-month return, and Healthcare XLV also crossed up on a relative basis. Equity cross-timescale alignment is 29%, so confirmation concentrates in copper miners, Asia-Pacific equity, and selected US growth and value exposures.

Preferred Stock PFF crossed above its 10M MA. High-yield credit and short duration lead versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG across timescales, while TIP and MBB outperform from below their 10M MA. Fixed income alignment is 71%, and the bond winners cluster in lower-duration credit.

FEATURED ETF: VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M rel perf
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+0.9%
Cross-up	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	+5.6%
Cross-up	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+5.7%
Cross-up	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	+9.0%
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+36.2%
Cross-down	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	+10.6%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+8.0%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+5.8%
Cross-down	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	+4.7%
Cross-down	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	+4.5%
Cross-down	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	+4.5%
Cross-down	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	+4.2%
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	+3.7%
Cross-down	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	+3.5%
Cross-down	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	+3.4%
Cross-down	MDYV	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF	+2.4%
Cross-down	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	+0.7%
Cross-down	VO	Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF	+0.6%
Cross-down	XLI	Industrial Select Sector	+0.5%
Cross-down	DIA	SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF	-0.3%
Cross-down	XLRE	The Real Estate Select Sector	-2.4%

Fixed Income: Price vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	+1.8%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M rel perf
Cross-down	MUB	iShares National Muni Bond ETF	+0.3%
Cross-down	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	+0.2%
Cross-down	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.1%
Cross-down	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	-0.3%
Cross-down	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	-0.8%

Specialty: Price vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M perf
Cross-up	ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	-36.2%
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	-28.3%
Cross-up	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	+37.7%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M rel perf
Cross-up	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	+21.4%
Cross-down	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	+0.8%
Cross-down	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	-1.2%
Cross-down	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-1.9%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M rel perf
Cross-up	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	+1.6%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.