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Tactical Market Trends: Low-Vol and Quality Lead Equity Rebound
Relative breadth reached 50%; Germany EWG lacks SPY confirmation
Defensive and quality equity lead at the close on October 15, with 32 of 59 ETFs (54%, +17.0pp) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 29 of 58 (50%, +8.6pp) above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Low-volatility, dividend-heavy US equity, and quality fill the leader cluster. Small-cap growth, momentum, and Asia-linked equity fill the laggard cluster. Germany EWG and MSCI World URTH hold above their price MA. Each ratio stays below its ratio MA vs the benchmark.
Fixed income leadership is selective, with only 5 of 16 beating the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Treasuries, investment grade credit, and mortgages lead on a relative basis. High yield credit and preferred lag. Short-duration counts 2 above their price MA, and long-duration counts 1.
Specialty leadership is limited to Biotechnology IBB, real estate, and low-volatility exposure against the S&P 500 SPY. Precious metals, crypto-linked names, and momentum-heavy specialty lag. Global REITs REET holds above its price MA, with its ratio below the benchmark.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Germany EWG, down 2.69% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. Its ratio stays below its ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY, and the cross-timescale relative read keeps Germany in the laggard cluster.
Investment Grade Credit LQD crossed above both its price MA and its ratio MA vs Aggregate Bonds AGG. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed above its price MA. Short-duration names VCSH and VTIP crossed below their ratio MA vs the benchmark.
Biotechnology IBB and Real Estate VNQ crossed above both their price MA and ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY. Long/Short Equity FTLS crossed below both measures. Global REITs REET recovered its price MA without relative confirmation.
Featured ETF: iShares MSCI Germany ETF EWG
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | EWG | iShares MSCI Germany ETF | -2.69% |
| Cross-up | VGK | Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF | -2.17% |
| Cross-up | XLRE | The Real Estate Select Sector | -1.39% |
| Cross-up | MDYV | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF | -0.42% |
| Cross-up | IQLT | iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF | -0.30% |
| Cross-up | INDA | iShares MSCI India ETF | -0.12% |
| Cross-up | FXI | iShares China Large-Cap ETF | +0.20% |
| Cross-up | XLC | Communication Services Select Sector | +0.41% |
| Cross-up | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | +0.43% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VGK | Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF | -3.58% |
| Cross-up | MDYV | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF | -1.85% |
| Cross-up | IQLT | iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF | -1.73% |
| Cross-up | FXI | iShares China Large-Cap ETF | -1.23% |
| Cross-up | XLC | Communication Services Select Sector | -1.03% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | EMB | iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | -1.48% |
| Cross-up | LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | -1.15% |
| Cross-up | VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF | -0.79% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | -0.55% |
| Cross-down | BNDX | Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF | +1.07% |
| Cross-down | VTIP | Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF | +0.85% |
| Cross-down | VCSH | Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF | +0.58% |
| Cross-down | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | +0.48% |
| Cross-down | VGIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF | +0.36% |
| Cross-down | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | +0.21% |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | REET | iShares Global REIT ETF | -2.27% |
| Cross-up | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF | -1.68% |
| Cross-up | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | +0.16% |
| Cross-down | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | +1.00% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF | -3.09% |
| Cross-up | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | -1.27% |
| Cross-down | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | -0.45% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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