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October 15, 2026
2 min read
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Gold Miners GDX Rose 4.34%

Thursday reflected a defensive rotation. Gold Miners GDX set the tone.

Country funds diverged

Movers

Leaders: India INDA +1.93% (3M: -2.0%), Healthcare XLV +1.86% (3M: +10.4%)

Laggards: Brazil EWZ -2.39% (3M: +18.0%), South Korea EWY -2.26% (3M: -3.9%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Brazil EWZ +18.0%, Energy XLE +16.1%, Taiwan EWT +12.1%

Weak: Utilities XLU -7.1%, Real Estate XLRE -6.8%, S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG -6.5%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 equity ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 15 Oct 2026; ending at EWZ Brazil +18.0%, XLV Healthcare +10.4%, INDA India -2.0%, EWY South Korea -3.9%

Counter-trend rally in duration

Movers

Leaders: Long Treasuries TLT +1.37% (3M: -4.3%), Investment Grade Credit LQD +0.82% (3M: -2.5%)

Laggards: Short TIPS VTIP +0.14% (3M: -0.4%), Short Corporate VCSH +0.23% (3M: -0.4%)

3M Leaderboard (within FI scale)

Strong: Short TIPS VTIP -0.4%, Short Corporate VCSH -0.4%, Global Bonds BNDX -0.8%

Weak: Long Treasuries TLT -4.3%, Muni Bonds MUB -3.1%, 7-10yr Treasuries IEF -2.7%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 fixed income ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 15 Oct 2026; ending at VTIP Short TIPS -0.4%, VCSH Short Corporate -0.4%, LQD Investment Grade Credit -2.5%, TLT Long Treasuries -4.3%

Miners and biotech led, momentum names lagged

Movers

Leaders: Gold Miners GDX +4.34% (3M: +22.0%), Biotechnology IBB +2.05% (3M: +9.3%)

Laggards: Momentum Factor MTUM -1.10% (3M: unch.), Semiconductors SMH -1.04% (3M: +0.4%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Ethereum Trust ETHA +32.8%, Bitcoin Trust IBIT +28.2%, Gold Miners GDX +22.0%

Weak: Clean Energy ICLN -9.9%, Global REITs REET -8.4%, Real Estate VNQ -7.8%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 specialty ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 15 Oct 2026; ending at GDX Gold Miners +22.0%, IBB Biotechnology +9.3%, SMH Semiconductors +0.4%, MTUM Momentum Factor +0.0%

Technical Signals

AssetSetupInstrumentsRead
EquityTrend-break RiskBrazil EWZtop decliner today -2.39%, 3M leader +18.0%
Volatility CompressionGlobal Min Vol ACWV, Copper Miners COPX, Japan EWJ
Fixed IncomeCounter-trend RallyLong Treasuries TLTtop mover today +1.37%, 3M laggard -4.3%
Trend-break RiskShort TIPS VTIP and Short Corporate VCSHtoday's laggards, 3M leaders
Volatility ExpansionGlobal Bonds BNDX, High Yield HYG, High Yield Bonds JNK
SpecialtyReversal SetupClean Energy ICLNvol compression building in 3M underperformers
Volatility CompressionGold Miners GDX, Gold GLD, Clean Energy ICLN
Volatility ExpansionManaged Futures DBMF, Biotechnology IBB

Trend-break Risk: one of the day's two weakest, and in our top three over three months.
Counter-trend Rally: one of the day's two strongest, and in our bottom three over three months.
Reversal Setup: in our bottom three over three months, with volatility more than 1 standard deviation below its own norm.

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Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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