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September 30, 2026
2 min read
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South Korea EWY Sank 2.31%

Wednesday registered a pro-cyclical rotation. Commodity-linked equities led, and leadership concentrated in cyclical and non-duration exposures.

Overseas markets led, defensives lagged

Movers

Outperformers: Brazil EWZ +2.14% (3M: +9.0%), Japan EWJ +0.98% (3M: +4.7%)

Underperformers: South Korea EWY -2.31% (3M: -1.5%), Consumer Staples XLP -1.53% (3M: -2.6%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Energy XLE +17.1%, Copper Miners COPX +12.5%, Brazil EWZ +9.0%

Weak: Utilities XLU -11.3%, S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG -9.3%, Industrials XLI -8.7%

[Web Equity Chart]

Munis and mortgages held up, duration lagged

Movers

Outperformers: Muni Bonds MUB +0.82% (3M: -5.3%), Mortgage-Backed MBB +0.11% (3M: -4.0%)

Underperformers: Long Treasuries TLT -0.58% (3M: -8.3%), EM Sovereign Bonds EMB -0.48% (3M: -4.6%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Short TIPS VTIP -0.6%, Short Corporate VCSH -1.1%, High Yield HYG -2.0%

Weak: Long Treasuries TLT -8.3%, Muni Bonds MUB -5.3%, Investment Grade Credit LQD -5.0%

[Web Fixed Income Chart]

Alternatives mixed, miners and REITs lagged

Movers

Outperformers: Semiconductors SMH +0.35% (3M: -1.8%), Managed Futures DBMF +0.31% (3M: +6.6%)

Underperformers: Gold Miners GDX -1.43% (3M: +17.0%), Real Estate VNQ -0.99% (3M: -6.6%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Ethereum Trust ETHA +65.1%, Bitcoin Trust IBIT +39.2%, Gold Miners GDX +17.0%

Weak: Clean Energy ICLN -15.8%, Infrastructure PAVE -9.0%, Real Estate VNQ -6.6%

[Web Specialty Chart]

Technical Signals

AssetSetupInstrumentsRead
EquityVolatility CompressionGlobal Min Vol ACWV, Copper Miners COPX, Emg. Markets EEM
OversoldSelect Dividend DVY, Intl High Dividend IDV, Small-Cap IJR
Fixed IncomeCounter-trend RallyMuni Bonds MUBtop mover today +0.82%, 3M laggard -5.3%
Volatility ExpansionAggregate Bonds AGG, Global Bonds BNDX, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB
OversoldAggregate Bonds AGG, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB, High Yield HYG
SpecialtyTrend-break RiskGold Miners GDXtop decliner today -1.43%, 3M leader +17.0%
Reversal SetupClean Energy ICLNvol compression building in 3M underperformers
Volatility CompressionGold Miners GDX, Clean Energy ICLN, Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ
Volatility ExpansionManaged Futures DBMF
OversoldGlobal REITs REET, Real Estate VNQ

Counter-trend Rally: one of the day's two strongest, and in our bottom three over three months.
Trend-break Risk: one of the day's two weakest, and in our top three over three months.
Reversal Setup: in our bottom three over three months, with volatility more than 1 standard deviation below its own norm.

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Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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