Tactical Trends: Growth and North Asia Hold the Thin Equity Lead

Only 9 of 59 equity ETFs hold above their 20-day averages.

Equity leadership stays concentrated in growth and North Asia at the close on October 1. Only 9 of 59 ETFs (15%, +1.7pp on the day) in our ETF universe hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), and 9 of 58 (16%, unchanged on the day) outperform the S&P 500 SPY over the same horizon. South Korea EWY, Taiwan equity, and US growth and technology anchor the leader set. Developed ex-US, emerging markets, and defensive low-volatility and dividend exposure fill the laggard cluster.

Fixed income stays below its price averages across our coverage, with 0 of 17 above their 20D MA. Relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG cluster in short and intermediate duration, munis, and TIPS. EM debt and high yield lag on the credit side. Long duration lags on rate sensitivity.

Specialty strength is selective, with 7 of 15 above their 20D MA. Semiconductors, momentum, and bitcoin-linked exposure outperform the S&P 500 SPY. Biotechnology IBB and the gold and real-estate cluster lag. In commodities, Broad Commodities PDBC crossed above its price average and ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Silver stays in the laggard group.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

South Korea EWY, up 4.05% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. EWY also crossed above its ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY, and South Korea is aligned across daily, weekly, and monthly relative leadership.

Japan EWJ, up 1.30% vs S&P 500 SPY over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its ratio MA vs SPY and below its 20D MA. S&P MidCap Growth MDYG, down 1.12% vs SPY over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its ratio MA vs SPY, and the negative trailing relative return marks that move as stabilization.

Muni Bonds MUB crossed above its ratio MA vs Aggregate Bonds AGG, and TIPS TIP and Corporate Credit VCIT did the same. Short and intermediate duration, munis, and inflation-linked exposure hold the bond winner cluster. EM debt, high yield, and long duration fill the laggard side.

Featured ETF: iShares MSCI South Korea ETF EWY

Technical Signals

Related

• SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
• Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
• ETF trend metrics explained

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.