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Regime Trends: Equity Leadership Contracts Into Asia and US Growth
Broad price participation now masks a thin relative leader list.
Asia and US growth define the equity winners at the September 30 close. Across our ETF universe, 46 of 59 equity ETFs (78%, -11.9pp) hold above their 10-month MA, but only 10 of 58 (17%, -19.0pp) hold above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY, a 61pp price-relative gap. Japan EWJ and Taiwan EWT anchor the relative leader cluster. Low-volatility, developed ex-US, and broad US equity sit above their price MA and below their ratio MA vs the benchmark.
Fixed income has no price participation, with 0 of 17 ETFs above their 10-month MA. Nine of 16 beat the Aggregate Bonds AGG, led by short duration, intermediate Treasuries, and selected credit. Long duration, investment grade credit, and EM debt lag.
Specialty relative strength vs the S&P 500 SPY is concentrated in crypto, semiconductors, and managed futures, with 7 of 15 ETFs above their ratio MA. Precious metals, clean energy, and real estate lag. Agriculture Basket DBA and Copper CPER both crossed below their ratio MA vs the benchmark.
10-Month Regime Breadth
Key Takeaways
Cross-timescale equity alignment is 34%, and Japan EWJ, Taiwan EWT, and US growth hold relative leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY across daily, weekly, and monthly windows. Low-volatility, developed ex-US, and domestic value and small-cap names align on the weak side.
Against the S&P 500 SPY, Ethereum ETHA, down 22.28% relative to SPY over the trailing 10-month window, crossed above its 10-month ratio moving average (10M ratio MA). Bitcoin Trust IBIT also crossed above its ratio moving average vs the benchmark, and both names are in the specialty relative leader cluster.
Fixed income alignment is 100% across daily, weekly, and monthly windows, and Global Bonds BNDX, 3-7yr Treasuries IEI, and Short Corporate VCSH lead vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB, Mortgage-Backed MBB, and long-duration exposure lag.
Featured ETF: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ETHA vs SPY
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 10-month MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 10M perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | XLB | Materials Select Sector | +10.9% |
| Cross-down | XLI | Industrial Select Sector | +9.9% |
| Cross-down | SDY | SPDR S&P Dividend ETF | +6.8% |
| Cross-down | MDYV | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF | +6.3% |
| Cross-down | XLP | Consumer Staples Select Sector | +4.3% |
| Cross-down | EWG | iShares MSCI Germany ETF | +3.0% |
| Cross-down | XLRE | The Real Estate Select Sector | +1.6% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 10M rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | +19.9% |
| Cross-down | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | +11.1% |
| Cross-down | SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | +8.2% |
| Cross-down | IVLU | iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF | +5.9% |
| Cross-down | SLYV | SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF | +1.9% |
| Cross-down | IJR | iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | +1.1% |
| Cross-down | SLYG | SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF | +0.3% |
| Cross-down | IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF | -0.2% |
| Cross-down | RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | -2.2% |
| Cross-down | XLF | Financial Select Sector | -9.8% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 10-month MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 10M perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | VTIP | Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF | +1.0% |
| Cross-down | JNK | SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF | +0.3% |
| Cross-down | HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | +0.1% |
| Cross-down | VCSH | Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF | +0.1% |
| Cross-down | PFF | iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | -0.6% |
| Cross-down | EMB | iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | -2.0% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 10M rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VGIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF | -0.2% |
| Cross-up | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | +0.3% |
| Cross-up | BNDX | Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF | +1.4% |
| Cross-down | EMB | iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | +1.1% |
| Cross-down | MBB | iShares MBS ETF | unch. |
Specialty: Price vs 10-month MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 10M perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | +9.1% |
| Cross-down | GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | +6.3% |
| Cross-down | REET | iShares Global REIT ETF | +4.1% |
| Cross-down | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF | +1.8% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 10M rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | ETHA | iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | -22.3% |
| Cross-up | IBIT | iShares Bitcoin | -18.6% |
| Cross-up | JEPQ | JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF | +2.0% |
| Cross-up | DBMF | iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | +4.8% |
| Cross-down | GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | -5.8% |
Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 10M rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | CPER | United States Copper LP | +9.3% |
| Cross-down | DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | -2.2% |
Related
- Tactical Trends: Korea Slips Below Its 20-Day MA, Equity Leadership Thins
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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