October 30, 2026

3 min read

Semiconductors SMH Sank 6.98%

Friday brought a defensive rotation. Semiconductors SMH fell sharply and set the tone.

Energy and staples led, miners and Korea lagged

Movers

Outperformers: Energy XLE +1.91% (3M: +19.8%), Consumer Staples XLP +1.41% (3M: +6.1%)

Underperformers: South Korea EWY -5.52% (3M: -4.6%), Copper Miners COPX -5.19% (3M: -9.3%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Energy XLE +19.8%, Healthcare XLV +14.4%, Dividend Quality SCHD +7.5%

Weak: China MCHI -12.2%, Brazil EWZ -10.9%, Communication Services XLC -10.0%

DAILY · 3M

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 equity ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 30 Oct 2026; ending at XLE Energy +19.8%, XLP Consumer Staples +6.1%, EWY South Korea -4.6%, COPX Copper Miners -9.3%

Treasuries led, credit proxies lagged

Movers

Outperformers: 7-10yr Treasuries IEF +0.56% (3M: -0.4%), Int. Treasuries VGIT +0.43% (3M: -0.2%)

Underperformers: Preferred Stock PFF -0.80% (3M: -6.1%), High Yield Bonds JNK -0.23% (3M: -1.5%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Short TIPS VTIP +0.6%, Long Treasuries TLT +0.4%, Short Corporate VCSH +0.1%

Weak: Preferred Stock PFF -6.1%, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB -1.9%, High Yield Bonds JNK -1.5%

DAILY · 3M

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 fixed income ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 30 Oct 2026; ending at VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.2%, IEF 7-10yr Treasuries -0.4%, JNK High Yield Bonds -1.5%, PFF Preferred Stock -6.1%

Real estate held up, cyclical plays lagged

Movers

Outperformers: Real Estate VNQ +0.07% (3M: -4.4%), Global REITs REET unch. (3M: -6.1%)

Underperformers: Semiconductors SMH -6.98% (3M: -4.2%), Gold Miners GDX -5.21% (3M: +1.4%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Bitcoin Trust IBIT +19.9%, Ethereum Trust ETHA +19.1%, Biotechnology IBB +17.1%

Weak: Clean Energy ICLN -14.9%, Infrastructure PAVE -7.0%, Global REITs REET -6.1%

DAILY · 3M

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 specialty ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 30 Oct 2026; ending at GDX Gold Miners +1.4%, SMH Semiconductors -4.2%, VNQ Real Estate -4.4%, REET Global REITs -6.1%

Technical Signals

Asset	Setup	Instruments	Read
Equity	Exhaustion Risk	Dividend Quality SCHD	3M leaders, flashing overbought
	Washout Risk	China MCHI and Brazil EWZ	3M laggards, flashing oversold
	Outsized Drop	US Technology IYW and Technology XLK and Nasdaq 100 QQQ	IYW -4.33%, 3.2x its vol, XLK -4.89%, 3.2x its vol, QQQ -3.47%, 3.0x its vol
	Volatility Compression	Materials XLB
	Overbought	Dividend Quality SCHD, Dividend Aristocrats SDY, Materials XLB
	Oversold	Copper Miners COPX, Brazil EWZ, China MCHI
Fixed Income	Exhaustion Risk	Short TIPS VTIP	3M leaders, flashing overbought
	Washout Risk	Preferred Stock PFF	3M laggards, flashing oversold
	Overbought	Muni Bonds MUB, Short TIPS VTIP
	Oversold	Preferred Stock PFF
Specialty	Counter-trend Rally	Global REITs REET	2nd-strongest today unch., 3M laggard -6.1%
	Washout Risk	Clean Energy ICLN	3M laggards, flashing oversold
	Outsized Drop	Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ and Momentum Factor MTUM and Gold GLD	JEPQ -3.03%, 3.4x its vol, MTUM -4.77%, 3.1x its vol, GLD -3.47%, 3.1x its vol
	Oversold	Clean Energy ICLN

Exhaustion Risk: in our top three over three months, with its RSI(14) above 70.
Washout Risk: in our bottom three over three months, with its RSI(14) below 30.
Outsized Drop: a drop more than 2.5 times its 20-day volatility.
Volatility Compression: lowest volatility in three months, more than 2 standard deviations below its 3-month average.
Overbought: RSI(14) above 70.
Oversold: RSI(14) below 30.
Counter-trend Rally: one of the day's two strongest, and in our bottom three over three months.

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Semiconductors SMH Sank 6.98%

Energy and staples led, miners and Korea lagged

Movers

3M Leaderboard

Treasuries led, credit proxies lagged

Movers

3M Leaderboard

Real estate held up, cyclical plays lagged

Movers

3M Leaderboard

Technical Signals

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Semiconductors SMH Sank 6.98%

Energy and staples led, miners and Korea lagged

Movers

3M Leaderboard

Treasuries led, credit proxies lagged

Movers

3M Leaderboard

Real estate held up, cyclical plays lagged

Movers

3M Leaderboard

Technical Signals

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