Tactical Market Trends: Growth and Global Equity Lose the 20-Day
Price breadth fell 15.2pp and trails relative leadership by 23pp
Cross-downs spread through developed-market and growth equity into the October 30 close. Only 31 of 59 equity ETFs (53%, -15.2pp on the day) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) after breaks in Developed Markets VEA and S&P MidCap Growth MDYG. Relative leadership is firmer, with 44 of 58 ETFs (76%, +3.5pp) above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Low-volatility, dividend US equity, and Europe account for 15 leaders. Growth, Asia-Pacific, emerging markets, and technology account for 14 laggards. The negative 23pp price-relative gap leaves developed ex-US and value exposures in the price-below, ratio-above group.
Fixed income leadership vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG is limited to intermediate and long Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, munis, and TIPS. Short duration shows 1 of 2 above its price average and 0 of 2 above its ratio MA. Long duration shows 1 of 1 on both measures.
Specialty leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY is limited to managed futures, long/short equity, biotech, real estate, and low-volatility. Managed Futures DBMF shows the price-below, ratio-above split. Copper CPER crossed below its 20D MA. Broad commodities and oil lead the commodity cluster. Silver and agriculture lag.
Key Takeaways
Intl Momentum IMTM fell 3.94% over the trailing 20-day window and crossed below its 20D MA. Its ratio stands above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY, placing it with developed ex-US and value exposures in the price-below, ratio-above group.
Int. Treasuries VGIT crossed above its ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB and Investment Grade Credit LQD crossed below theirs. EM debt, high yield, and investment grade credit define the laggard cluster across timescales.
Long/Short Equity FTLS crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY alongside Managed Futures DBMF. Biotech, real estate, and low-volatility fill the rest of the specialty relative leaders. Semiconductors, momentum, precious metals, and clean energy stay in the laggard cluster.
Featured ETF: iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF IMTM
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF | +1.20% |
| Cross-down | EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | -0.57% |
| Cross-down | IVLU | iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF | -1.06% |
| Cross-down | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | -1.39% |
| Cross-down | XLI | Industrial Select Sector | -1.50% |
| Cross-down | VEA | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF | -2.38% |
| Cross-down | VLUE | iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | -2.90% |
| Cross-down | MDYG | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF | -3.52% |
| Cross-down | IMTM | iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF | -3.94% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | QUAL | iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | +0.94% |
| Cross-up | FXI | iShares China Large-Cap ETF | +1.50% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VGIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | +0.15% |
| Cross-down | EMB | iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | -0.12% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | DBMF | iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | +0.42% |
| Cross-up | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | +0.63% |
Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | CPER | United States Copper LP | -1.34% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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