SDY Dividend ETF: 1.2% Below Its 10-Month SMA

SDY sits 1.2% below its 10-month SMA; a close above 148.24 would re-establish the uptrend; TLT below its 10-month SMA adds a headwind.

Trend & Momentum

SPDR S&P Dividend ETF trades at $146.48, 1.2% below its 10-month SMA at $148.24. The average is up 3.4% over three months. The recent move rolled over, with 3M -3.2% after the prior 3-6M leg of +4.8pp. The 6M reading is +1.6%, the 12M reading is +7.3%, and 1M -5.7% marks the sharpest recent weakness. Price crossed below its 10-month SMA in September. Over the past 12 months, SDY rose from a November 2025 low of $131.83 to a July high of $159.32. The year's upward sequence is under pressure. 1Y realized volatility is 13.3% against a 3Y average of 12.3%, with a z-score of 0.2. The risk regime is still mild.

Relative Strength & Market Sensitivity

The SDY/SPY ratio, indexed to 100 at October 2021, stands 7.2% below its 10-month ratio SMA. The ratio SMA is down 0.3% over three months. SDY trails by 23.6% since the base. Relative returns are -5.4% over 3M and -7.2% over 12M. After its 12-month ratio high in February, the ratio crossed below its 10-month SMA in April and has now reached its 12-month low. The ratio's swing highs keep stepping lower. Sustained underperformance defines the relative trend.

Risk & Macro Sensitivity

SDY reads defensive but inefficient on a downside-adjusted basis, with 3Y beta at 0.55 and 3Y Sortino at 0.82. The fund's 3Y correlation to Long Treasuries TLT is 0.71. TLT is 7.2% below its 10-month SMA, which leaves a headwind. The fund's 3Y correlation to the US Dollar Index DXY is -0.43. DXY is 2.3% above its 10-month SMA, which adds a headwind. Beta is defensive. Downside-adjusted efficiency is sub-par over the cycle.

Related

• ETF trend metrics explained: definitions for every measure used above
• Compare ETFs with the Sharpe ratio
• SPY vs RSP: cap-weight vs equal-weight
• GLD vs GDX: bullion vs miners
• MTUM vs QUAL: momentum vs quality

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.