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Tactical Trends: International and Value Equity Break Lower at the Close
US growth, tech, healthcare, and Taiwan hold the shrinking leader cluster.
By the September 28 close, equity breakdown dominated, with 10 of 59 ETFs (17%, -15.2pp) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 8 of 58 (14%, -1.7pp) above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. US growth, technology, healthcare, and Taiwan held the leader cluster. International, low-volatility, and dividend/value exposures filled the laggards. Equity sits in a broad bear regime across our ETF universe.
Fixed income stayed below its price trend, with 0 of 17 above their 20D MA. Relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG were limited to short duration, intermediate Treasuries, high yield, and international aggregate. Long duration, investment grade, mortgages, and preferreds lagged.
Specialty leadership was selective, with 8 of 15 above both their price MAs and their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. Strength concentrated in semiconductors, momentum, biotech, and crypto-linked exposures. Oil showed relative strength vs the S&P 500 SPY. Metals and broad commodities weakened.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Taiwan equity, US growth, technology, and healthcare align as relative leaders across the daily, weekly, and monthly windows. South Korea EWY marks the equity divergence; it trades above its price MA and below its ratio MA vs SPY.
All fixed-income ETFs trade below their 20D MA. High Yield Bonds JNK crossed above its ratio MA vs AGG. Short duration, intermediate Treasuries, and high yield hold the relative winners. Long duration and Preferred Stock PFF lag.
Oil USO outperformed SPY by 15.94% over the trailing 20-day window and crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average (20D ratio MA). Copper CPER crossed below its ratio MA vs SPY and its price MA. Broad Commodities PDBC crossed below its price MA.
Featured ETF: United States Oil Fund LP USO vs SPY
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | +1.00% |
| Cross-down | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | IMTM | iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF | -0.45% |
| Cross-down | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF | -0.68% |
| Cross-down | VLUE | iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | -0.81% |
| Cross-down | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | -1.07% |
| Cross-down | VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF | -1.11% |
| Cross-down | XLC | Communication Services Select Sector | -1.28% |
| Cross-down | JEPI | JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF | -1.58% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | +2.12% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | JNK | SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF | +0.19% |
| Cross-down | PFF | iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | -0.17% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | +1.15% |
Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | PDBC | Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | +5.33% |
| Cross-down | CPER | United States Copper LP | unch. |
Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | USO | United States Oil Fund LP | +15.94% |
| Cross-down | CPER | United States Copper LP | +0.26% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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