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Tactical Market Trends: Equity Leadership Turns Defensive
Price breadth fell to 37% as relative breadth rose to 41%
Low-volatility and dividend equities lead the ETF universe at the close on October 14. Only 22 of 59 equity ETFs (37%, -25.4pp on the day) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), and 24 of 58 outperform the S&P 500 SPY on a 20-day ratio basis (41%, +24.1pp). US dividend and low-volatility exposures account for 7 of those 24 relative leaders. International and emerging-market exposures account for 8 of the 37 price laggards. Nasdaq 100 QQQ and Technology XLK crossed below their 20D MA.
Fixed income leadership clusters in government duration, municipals, inflation-linked exposure, and short duration. 11 of 17 fixed-income ETFs hold above their 20D MA, and 10 of 16 beat the Aggregate Bonds AGG. High yield, investment grade credit, EM debt, and preferreds lag the benchmark.
Only 3 of 15 specialty ETFs hold above their 20D MA and beat the S&P 500 SPY on a ratio basis. Leadership is limited to macro, flexible equity, and low-volatility equity. Copper CPER and Agriculture Basket DBA crossed below their 20D MA. Oil and broad commodities lead the commodity cluster.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin IBIT, up 7.43% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20D MA. Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ and Infrastructure PAVE also crossed below their 20D MA.
Cross-timescale alignment in equity is 44%. Brazil equity EWZ and Quality QUAL align on absolute and relative strength vs the S&P 500 SPY across daily, weekly, and monthly horizons. Developed ex-US, Germany, and small-cap exposures dominate the laggard cluster.
Fixed income cross-timescale alignment is 35%. Short duration contributes 2 relative leaders vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG, and Treasury duration adds 3 more. Investment Grade LQD and Preferred PFF stay on the lagging side.
Featured ETF: iShares Bitcoin IBIT
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | EWU | iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF | -1.16% |
| Cross-down | IYW | iShares U.S. Technology ETF | +3.75% |
| Cross-down | XLK | Technology Select Sector | +3.65% |
| Cross-down | QQQ | Invesco QQQ | +3.55% |
| Cross-down | SPYG | S&P 500 Growth ETF | +3.26% |
| Cross-down | IWF | iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF | +3.09% |
| Cross-down | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF | +1.77% |
| Cross-down | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | +1.25% |
| Cross-down | VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF | +0.42% |
| Cross-down | MDYG | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | FXI | iShares China Large-Cap ETF | -0.18% |
| Cross-down | IQLT | iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF | -0.64% |
| Cross-down | INDA | iShares MSCI India ETF | -0.89% |
| Cross-down | MDYV | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF | -1.34% |
| Cross-down | XLC | Communication Services Select Sector | -1.61% |
| Cross-down | XLRE | The Real Estate Select Sector | -2.27% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLRE | The Real Estate Select Sector | -4.48% |
| Cross-up | XLF | Financial Select Sector | -4.39% |
| Cross-up | DVY | iShares Select Dividend ETF | -3.47% |
| Cross-up | EWU | iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF | -3.40% |
| Cross-up | EFAV | iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF | -3.18% |
| Cross-up | XLB | Materials Select Sector | -3.16% |
| Cross-up | INDA | iShares MSCI India ETF | -3.13% |
| Cross-up | VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF | -2.16% |
| Cross-up | RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | -1.98% |
| Cross-up | DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF | -1.96% |
| Cross-up | SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | -1.86% |
| Cross-up | ACWV | iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF | -1.76% |
| Cross-up | SPYV | S&P 500 Value ETF | -1.08% |
| Cross-up | XLV | Health Care Select Sector | +1.73% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -2.07% |
| Cross-up | IEF | iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.78% |
| Cross-up | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | -0.54% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -1.39% |
| Cross-up | IEF | iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.10% |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | IBIT | iShares Bitcoin | +7.43% |
| Cross-down | JEPQ | JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF | +2.64% |
| Cross-down | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | +0.13% |
| Cross-down | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF | -2.51% |
Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | CPER | United States Copper LP | +2.77% |
| Cross-down | DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | -1.94% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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