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Intermediate Trends: Emerging Markets Recovery Lacks Confirmation
Only 10 of 58 hold above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY
International price recoveries lack confirmation vs the S&P 500 SPY as of October 9. Emerging markets EEM sits below its ratio MA, and Healthcare XLV holds above both its price MA and ratio MA. Across the ETF universe, 21 of 59 equity ETFs (36%, +5.1pp on the week) hold above their 13-week moving average (13W MA), and only 10 of 58 (17%, -3.5pp) hold above their ratio MA vs SPY. Emerging markets, Japan, and South Korea fill the price-above, ratio-below cluster. US growth, technology, energy, and healthcare define the relative leaders.
Fixed income shows no price confirmation, with 0 of 17 above their 13-week averages. Relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG are short duration, intermediate Treasuries, international aggregate, and high yield. Preferred Stock PFF crossed below its ratio MA.
Specialty leadership clusters in bitcoin proxies, semiconductors, biotechnology, and momentum, with 7 of 15 above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Low-volatility and long/short equity trade above their price averages but below their ratio MAs. Commodities added an upside cross in Agriculture Basket DBA.
13-Week Intermediate Breadth
Key Takeaways
Cross-timescale equity alignment is 47%, with US growth, technology, and energy anchoring the multi-horizon winners. Low-volatility, US dividend, and international equity anchor the laggard side.
Fixed income relative strength splits by duration. Short duration holds 2 of 2 relative leaders. Long duration is 0 of 1, and Preferred Stock PFF is below its ratio MA vs Aggregate Bonds AGG.
Copper Miners COPX, up 12.03% over the trailing 13-week window, crossed below its 13W MA. Agriculture Basket DBA crossed above its 13W MA. Min Volatility USMV is above its price MA and below its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY.
Featured ETF: Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VWO | Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF | unch. |
| Cross-up | JEPI | JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF | +1.9% |
| Cross-up | ACWV | iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF | +2.3% |
| Cross-up | XLV | Health Care Select Sector | +6.6% |
| Cross-down | COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | +12.0% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLV | Health Care Select Sector | +3.1% |
| Cross-down | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | +0.1% |
| Cross-down | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -3.4% |
| Cross-down | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | -6.6% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | PFF | iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | +0.2% |
Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | USMV | iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF | +3.2% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | +0.8% |
Commodities: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | +2.0% |
Related
- Tactical Trends: Equity Reclaims 20-Day Averages, Leaders Stay Narrow
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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