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Intermediate Trends: Asia and Growth Define a Selective Equity Lead
Only 46% of equity names align across daily, weekly, and monthly reads.
Taiwan, South Korea, and U.S. growth lead the equity field at the September 25 close. Across our ETF universe, 26 of 59 equity ETFs (44%, +1.7pp) hold above their 13-week MA, and 15 of 58 (26%, unchanged) outperform the S&P 500 SPY. The gap between price participation and relative leadership is 18pp. Low-volatility, small-cap, and developed Europe fill the laggard cluster.
All 17 bond ETFs trade below their 13-week MA. Relative leadership vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG is limited to short duration, intermediate Treasuries, and credit, and 8 of 16 names (50%) beat the benchmark. Long-duration Treasuries and investment grade fill the laggard side.
Leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY in specialty ETFs concentrates in crypto proxies, semiconductors, and biotech, and 10 of 15 names hold above their 13-week MA. Copper CPER leads across commodities. Oil and broad commodities hold above their 13-week averages. Gold GLD crossed below its ratio MA vs SPY.
13-Week Intermediate Breadth
Key Takeaways
Semiconductors SMH crossed above its 13-week MA and above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Long/Short Equity FTLS and Gold GLD hold above their price MA and below their ratio MA vs their benchmark.
Momentum MTUM, down 7.64% relative to SPY over the trailing 13-week window, crossed above its 13-week ratio moving average (13W ratio MA).
3-7yr Treasuries IEI and Int. Treasuries VGIT crossed above their ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed below. The fixed-income leader cluster stays concentrated in intermediate and short duration.
Featured ETF: iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF MTUM vs SPY
Technical Signal Alerts
Equity: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | IMTM | iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF | +2.0% |
| Cross-up | VEA | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF | +2.1% |
| Cross-up | JEPI | JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF | +3.1% |
| Cross-up | QUAL | iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | +4.9% |
| Cross-down | IDV | iShares International Select Dividend ETF | +5.8% |
| Cross-down | ACWV | iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF | +5.1% |
| Cross-down | SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | +4.3% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLC | Communication Services Select Sector | +0.6% |
| Cross-down | IDV | iShares International Select Dividend ETF | -0.3% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VGIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF | +0.4% |
| Cross-up | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | +0.8% |
| Cross-down | EMB | iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | unch. |
Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -0.8% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | MTUM | iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF | -7.6% |
| Cross-up | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -6.5% |
| Cross-down | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | -0.6% |
| Cross-down | GLD | SPDR Gold | -0.7% |
Related
- Tactical Trends: Asia and Growth Reclaim Equity Participation
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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