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Tactical Trends: Asia and Growth Reclaim Equity Participation
Price recovery outruns benchmark leadership across equity
Equity participation improved through Asia and growth at the close on September 25, with 19 of 59 ETFs (32%, +13.6pp) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 9 of 58 (16%, unchanged on the day) above their ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY. The +17pp price-relative gap indicates price recovery is ahead of relative confirmation. Taiwan equity and South Korea EWY lead the relative winners. Emerging markets, Japan, global equity, and value hold above their price averages. Each stays below its ratio MA.
Fixed income stays below its price averages, with 0 of 17 ETFs above their 20D MA. Relative winners vs Aggregate Bonds AGG concentrate in short duration, intermediate Treasuries, international aggregate, and preferreds. Long duration, investment grade, mortgages, munis, and EM debt lag.
Specialty leadership vs S&P 500 SPY centers on semiconductors, momentum, and bitcoin-linked exposures, with 8 of 15 above their 20D MA. Gold, miners, clean energy, and real estate lag. Broad commodities and Oil USO crossed below their ratio MAs vs SPY.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
South Korea EWY is the only equity name that adds both a price cross up and a ratio cross up vs S&P 500 SPY on the day. The cross-timescale leader cluster stays concentrated in U.S. growth and technology.
Communication Services XLC, up 1.44% relative to S&P 500 SPY over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20-day ratio moving average (20D ratio MA). Eight equity price crosses on the day left emerging markets, Japan, global equity, and value in the same price-above, relative-below split.
High Yield Bonds JNK, up 0.36% relative to Aggregate Bonds AGG over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20D ratio MA. Oil USO, up 13.77% relative to S&P 500 SPY over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20D ratio MA.
Featured ETF: United States Oil Fund LP USO vs SPY
Technical Signal Alerts
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | JEPI | JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF | -1.25% |
| Cross-up | VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF | -0.70% |
| Cross-up | IMTM | iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF | -0.61% |
| Cross-up | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | -0.57% |
| Cross-up | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | +0.55% |
| Cross-up | VLUE | iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | +0.64% |
| Cross-up | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | +2.18% |
| Cross-up | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | +2.77% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | +2.48% |
| Cross-down | XLC | Communication Services Select Sector | +1.44% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | JNK | SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF | +0.36% |
Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | USO | United States Oil Fund LP | +13.77% |
| Cross-down | PDBC | Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | +5.57% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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