Breadth Holds Up as ETF Leadership Thins

SUMMARY

At Tuesday's close, the dominant short-horizon message was firmer absolute participation alongside fading leadership across Quantlake’s ETF universe. Equity price breadth improved to 50 of 62 ETFs, or 81%, above their 20-day moving average even as relative breadth slid to 40 of 62, or 65%, and the day’s equity alerts reflected that split with price recoveries in growth and emerging markets alongside relative slippage in quality, dividend, low-volatility, and industrial exposures; EEM’s ratio move higher versus SPY points to strengthening emerging-market leadership, while SPYG’s absolute recovery is less convincing given the broader drop in relative breadth. Fixed income strengthened on price, with 16 of 17 bond ETFs, or 94%, above their 20-day moving average after a 17.6-point jump, but relative breadth fell to 9 of 17, or 53%, as intermediate Treasuries regained their footing in absolute terms while TLT and PFF continued to lose ground versus AGG; alternatives were softer, with price breadth down to 8 of 13 and relative breadth to 7 of 13, and $ETHA is the clearest chart to watch because it broke below its 20-day moving average and also lost relative ground versus SPY despite a still-positive 20-day return, a combination that reads more like fading upside quality than durable leadership. Confirmation is limited by that widening gap between price breadth and relative breadth, while cross-timescale conviction remains selective rather than broad-based, with names such as EWY, HYG, and USO standing out more than the universe as a whole.

BREADTH

KEY TAKEAWAYS

- Equities are stabilizing on price, but leadership is narrowing as defensive and income-oriented relative lines roll over against SPY.

- Bonds improved most cleanly in absolute terms, though relative performance within fixed income still favors only select pockets rather than the group outright.

- Alternatives lost momentum on the day, and ETHA’s dual break on price and relative strength leaves crypto participation looking weaker at the close.

BOTTOM LINE

We read this session as a short-term improvement in participation, not a broad leadership reset. Until relative breadth stops deteriorating, we would treat the rebound across our monitored ETF universe as selective and favor the names with multi-horizon confirmation over simple 20-day price recoveries.

FEATURED CHART (ETHA)

TECHNICAL SIGNAL EVENTS

──── EQUITY ──────

▲ Absolute Price Signals

Above 20D moving average:

   EWY - iShares MSCI South Korea ETF

   Last: $127.19 | 20D Return: -5.00%

   SPYG - SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF

   Last: $100.16 | 20D Return: -3.33%

   VWO - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets

   Last: $54.09 | 20D Return: -1.89%

Below 20D moving average:

   QUAL - iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF

   Last: $193.39 | 20D Return: -3.44%

   XLP - Consumer Staples Select Sector

   Last: $81.26 | 20D Return: -4.95%

‍

⇄ Relative Strength Signals (vs SPY)

Above 20D moving average:

   EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

   Ratio: 0.0869 | 20D Relative Return: +0.61%

Below 20D moving average:

   SCHD - Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

   Ratio: 0.0464 | 20D Relative Return: +1.94%

   JEPQ - JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF

   Ratio: 0.0848 | 20D Relative Return: +0.66%

   ACWV - iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF

   Ratio: 0.1818 | 20D Relative Return: +0.34%

   JEPI - JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF

   Ratio: 0.0857 | 20D Relative Return: +0.08%

   XLI - Industrial Select Sector

   Ratio: 0.2492 | 20D Relative Return: -1.11%

‍

──── FIXED INCOME ──────

▲ Absolute Price Signals

Above 20D moving average:

   IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

   Last: $95.25 | 20D Return: -1.22%

   VGIT - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury

   Last: $59.39 | 20D Return: -0.86%

   IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF

   Last: $118.29 | 20D Return: -0.79%

‍

⇄ Relative Strength Signals (vs AGG)

Below 20D moving average:

   PFF - iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF

   Ratio: 0.3073 | 20D Relative Return: -0.87%

   TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

   Ratio: 0.8737 | 20D Relative Return: -1.60%

‍

──── ALTERNATIVES ──────

▲ Absolute Price Signals

Below 20D moving average:

   ETHA - iShares Ethereum Trust ETF

   Last: $15.95 | 20D Return: +3.77%

‍

⇄ Relative Strength Signals (vs SPY)

Above 20D moving average:

   REET - iShares Global REIT ETF

   Ratio: 0.0389 | 20D Relative Return: +0.26%

   FXE - Invesco CurrencyShares® Euro Currency

   Ratio: 0.1623 | 20D Relative Return: +2.58%

Below 20D moving average:

   ETHA - iShares Ethereum Trust ETF

   Ratio: 0.0242 | 20D Relative Return: +6.48%

   DBA - Invesco DB Agriculture

   Ratio: 0.0410 | 20D Relative Return: +4.39%

   UUP - Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish

   Ratio: 0.0421 | 20D Relative Return: +3.69%