SPYG: Rates Headwind, Weak Growth Regime

🎯 The Alpha Brief: SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG)  

SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF closed its latest session at $99.71, positioned -3.0% relative to its 10-month SMA.

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SPYG remains in a weak regime, with price 3.0% below its 10-month trend line and relative strength still lagging, which fits a growth factor tape facing an extreme negative macro impulse and a rates-up headwind. Compressed momentum leaves room for mean reversion, but until yields stop pressuring duration-sensitive leadership, the fund’s tech and communication-services concentration is more exposed to valuation compression than positioned for clean breakout leadership.

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On March 18, the Fed held the policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% and kept a data-dependent stance while noting elevated uncertainty, which reinforces the valuation headwind already showing up in SPYG’s negative macro and rates signals.

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Recent AI earnings strength from NVDA and MSFT has not been enough to overcome firmer inflation and a steady Fed, which helps explain why SPYG is still below trend and relatively lagging instead of reasserting growth leadership.

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Here is our 5-Lens Regime Map. 🧵👇

1️⃣ ABSOLUTE TREND: Downtrend (-3.0% vs 10-Mo SMA). The current regime is Compressed (Mean Reversion Risk) | -8.8% from 12-Mo High - 46.1% from 12-Mo Low.

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2️⃣ RELATIVE LEADERSHIP: Lagging (-2.4% vs Ratio 10-Mo SMA). Signal: Relative Range-bound.

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3️⃣ RISK: Market-Linked (Neutral Beta) • Within Range • Strong Efficiency • 6-Mo Low (Momentum Lag)

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4️⃣ MACRO: Moderately Coupled • Extreme (-) • Rates UP → Moderate Headwind • Z-Score -2.4

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5️⃣ FX: FX Neutral • Stretched (+) • Dollar UP/DOWN → Limited Signal • Z-Score +1.6

📅 Data as of: 2026-03-25

Mean-reversion assessments are based on 3-year statistical distributions (Z-scores).

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Romain Gandon

CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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