Tactical Trends: Growth, Tech, and Asia Reclaim the 20-Day Line

Price participation rebounds; benchmark-relative breadth is selective.

Technology, growth, and Asia-Pacific lead equity participation at the September 17 close, with 12 of 59 equity ETFs (20%, +11.9pp on the day) above their 20-day moving averages (20D MA) and 14 of 58 (24%, unchanged on the day) above their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. Nasdaq 100 QQQ, Technology XLK, and South Korea EWY define the advancing cluster, and China, developed ex-US, and dividend-heavy US equity lag the benchmark. Equity participation rebounded from a low base. Relative leadership is selective and concentrated in growth-heavy and Asia-linked exposures.

Fixed income holds all 17 price series below their 20-day averages, and relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG are limited to credit, short duration, and Long Treasuries TLT. Treasury, mortgage, and inflation-linked laggards mean bond strength is relative and unconfirmed in price.

Specialty leadership concentrates in semiconductors, momentum, and clean energy, with 6 of 15 names above their 20-day averages. Crypto, gold-linked exposures, and real estate lag the S&P 500 SPY. Oil and broad commodities lead the commodity bucket across timescales, and Copper CPER improved relative strength vs the S&P 500 SPY as agriculture faded. Specialty and commodity participation clusters in cyclicals, and crypto and agriculture lose relative ground.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

South Korea EWY crossed above both its price MA and its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Asia-Pacific and US growth form the cross-timescale leader cluster, and equity alignment is 29%.

Preferred Stock PFF and Long Treasuries TLT crossed above their ratio MAs vs Aggregate Bonds AGG. High yield, preferreds, and short duration form the relative leader cluster, and 82% cross-timescale alignment shows bond weakness is broad.

Ethereum ETHA, up 17.30% relative to SPY over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20-day ratio moving average (20D ratio MA). Copper CPER crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY, and Agriculture Basket DBA crossed below. Specialty and commodity relative strength tilts toward industrial cyclicals, and crypto and agriculture lose relative ground.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ETHA vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	unch.
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	+0.12%
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+0.12%
Cross-up	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	+0.13%
Cross-up	XLE	Energy Select Sector	+1.42%
Cross-up	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+2.41%
Cross-up	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	+4.56%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	+5.45%
Cross-down	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.23%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	+0.16%
Cross-down	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.42%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	-0.56%
Cross-up	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	unch.
Cross-up	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	+0.28%
Cross-up	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	+1.03%
Cross-up	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	+1.28%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	+0.28%
Cross-up	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	+0.79%
Cross-down	ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	+17.30%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	+1.54%
Cross-down	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	+1.31%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.