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Tactical Trends: Equal Weight Cracks, Equity Breadth Falls to 39%
Only 9 of 58 equity ETFs beat S&P 500 SPY at the close
Equal-weight and cyclical equity weakened on October 7. Only 23 of 59 equity ETFs (39%, -11.9pp) in our ETF universe are above their 20-day moving averages (20D MA), and 9 of 58 (16%, unchanged on the day) outperform the S&P 500 SPY. The 23pp price-relative gap leaves price participation ahead of relative leadership. Large-cap growth, Taiwan, and Brazil sit on the leader side; low-volatility, developed ex-US, and smaller-cap US equity form the laggard cluster.
Fixed income leadership is limited to short duration in price. Short-duration price breadth is 2 of 2, and long-duration price breadth is 0 of 1. Relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG center on short duration, high yield, and intermediate Treasuries. EM debt, preferreds, and long duration lag.
Specialty relative leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY is limited, with 5 of 15 names above their ratio MAs and strength centered on semiconductors and momentum. Gold, clean energy, and real estate lag. Commodity signals weakened, with Agriculture Basket DBA crossing below its 20D MA and silver in the laggard cluster.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Ethereum ETHA, up 4.23% over the past 20 sessions, crossed below its 20D MA. Its relative line vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed below its 20-day ratio moving average (20D ratio MA) after a 1.99% gain over the past 20 sessions.
Healthcare XLV crossed above its 20D MA. Equal Weight S&P 500 RSP and Small-Cap VB crossed below their 20D MA. S&P MidCap Growth MDYG crossed below its 20D ratio MA vs SPY.
Short Corporate VCSH and Short TIPS VTIP crossed above their 20D MA. TIPS TIP crossed above its 20D ratio MA vs AGG. Preferred Stock PFF crossed below its ratio moving average vs AGG.
Featured ETF: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ETHA
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLV | Health Care Select Sector | +1.73% |
| Cross-down | ACWV | iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF | -1.14% |
| Cross-down | VWO | Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF | -1.49% |
| Cross-down | RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | -1.51% |
| Cross-down | XLI | Industrial Select Sector | -2.04% |
| Cross-down | VB | Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF | -2.13% |
| Cross-down | IMTM | iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF | -2.51% |
| Cross-down | SLYG | SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF | -3.16% |
| Cross-down | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | -3.72% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLU | Utilities Select Sector | -5.54% |
| Cross-down | MDYG | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF | -2.66% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VTIP | Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF | -0.67% |
| Cross-up | VCSH | Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF | -0.66% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | -0.30% |
| Cross-down | PFF | iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | unch. |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | ETHA | iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | +4.23% |
| Cross-down | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | -1.66% |
| Cross-down | ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | -3.89% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | ETHA | iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | +1.99% |
| Cross-down | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | -3.77% |
Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | -1.76% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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