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October 6, 2026
2 min read
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Utilities XLU Rebounded 2.98%

Tuesday saw a defensive rotation. Utilities XLU rebounded against its 3M downtrend and set the tone.

Utilities rallied, small caps lagged

Movers

Leaders: Utilities XLU +2.98% (3M: -8.6%), Consumer Discretionary XLY +1.18% (3M: -2.9%)

Laggards: South Korea EWY -2.64% (3M: +2.0%), Russell 2000 IWM -0.72% (3M: -3.9%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Brazil EWZ +25.0%, Copper Miners COPX +18.1%, Energy XLE +15.3%

Weak: Utilities XLU -8.6%, Real Estate XLRE -6.1%, S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG -4.9%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 equity ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 6 Oct 2026; ending at EWY South Korea +2.0%, XLY Consumer Discretionary -2.9%, IWM Russell 2000 -3.9%, XLU Utilities -8.6%

Credit outperformed, muni weakness deepened

Movers

Leaders: EM Sovereign Bonds EMB +0.68% (3M: -3.7%), High Yield Bonds JNK +0.39% (3M: -1.5%)

Laggards: Muni Bonds MUB -0.10% (3M: -4.7%), Short TIPS VTIP +0.06% (3M: -0.6%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Short TIPS VTIP -0.6%, Short Corporate VCSH -0.6%, Global Bonds BNDX -1.3%

Weak: Long Treasuries TLT -7.3%, Muni Bonds MUB -4.7%, Investment Grade Credit LQD -3.9%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 fixed income ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 6 Oct 2026; ending at VTIP Short TIPS -0.6%, JNK High Yield Bonds -1.5%, EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -3.7%, MUB Muni Bonds -4.7%

Infrastructure themes led, biotech and crypto lagged

Movers

Leaders: Clean Energy ICLN +1.45% (3M: -7.9%), Infrastructure PAVE +1.00% (3M: -2.5%)

Laggards: Biotechnology IBB -2.34% (3M: +3.4%), Ethereum Trust ETHA -0.65% (3M: +54.8%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Ethereum Trust ETHA +54.8%, Bitcoin Trust IBIT +37.6%, Gold Miners GDX +20.0%

Weak: Clean Energy ICLN -7.9%, Global REITs REET -6.3%, Real Estate VNQ -6.3%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 specialty ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 6 Oct 2026; ending at ETHA Ethereum Trust +54.8%, IBB Biotechnology +3.4%, PAVE Infrastructure -2.5%, ICLN Clean Energy -7.9%

Technical Signals

AssetSetupInstrumentsRead
EquityCounter-trend RallyUtilities XLUtop mover today +2.98%, 3M laggard -8.6%
Exhaustion RiskBrazil EWZ3M leaders, flashing overbought
Volatility CompressionGlobal Min Vol ACWV, Copper Miners COPX, Emg. Markets EEM
OverboughtBrazil EWZ, US Technology IYW, Nasdaq 100 QQQ
OversoldIntl High Dividend IDV
Fixed IncomeTrend-break RiskShort TIPS VTIP2nd-weakest today +0.06%, 3M leader -0.6%
Volatility ExpansionAggregate Bonds AGG, Global Bonds BNDX, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB
OversoldLong Treasuries TLT
SpecialtyCounter-trend RallyClean Energy ICLNtop mover today +1.45%, 3M laggard -7.9%
Trend-break RiskEthereum Trust ETHA2nd-weakest today -0.65%, 3M leader +54.8%
Reversal SetupClean Energy ICLNvol compression building in 3M underperformers
Volatility CompressionGold Miners GDX, Clean Energy ICLN, Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ
Volatility ExpansionManaged Futures DBMF
OverboughtCovered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ

Counter-trend Rally: one of the day's two strongest, and in our bottom three over three months.
Exhaustion Risk: in our top three over three months, with its RSI above 70.
Trend-break Risk: one of the day's two weakest, and in our top three over three months.
Reversal Setup: in our bottom three over three months, with volatility more than 1 standard deviation below its own norm.

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Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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