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Tactical Trends: Equity Crossovers Spread, Relative Strength Stays Narrow
Price participation leads relative leadership by 35 points in equity.
Price recovery broadened into the October 6 close across our ETF universe. In equity, 30 of 59 ETFs (51%, +10.2pp on the day) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), and 9 of 58 (16%, -5.2pp) outperform the S&P 500 SPY on a ratio-moving-average basis. US growth supplies five of the nine relative leaders. Emerging markets, Japan, and South Korea account for three of the six ratio cross-downs, and the price-relative gap widened to 35 points.
Fixed income shows no absolute confirmation, with 0 of 17 ETFs above their 20-day average. Relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG are short duration and credit, with 2 of 2 short-duration names above their ratio MA and long duration at 0 of 1. International aggregate also leads. Municipals, TIPS, and long Treasuries lag.
Seven of 15 specialty ETFs outperform the S&P 500 SPY on a ratio-moving-average basis. Crypto proxies, semiconductors, and momentum form the leader cluster. Gold, gold miners, and clean energy populate the laggard side. Commodity signals split between copper and agriculture on the upside and silver on the laggard side.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Utilities XLU, down 4.57% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. Equal Weight S&P 500 RSP and Value Factor VLUE also reclaimed their 20-day average, and Dividend Growth VIG joined that crossover cluster.
Corporate Credit VCIT crossed above its ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Muni Bonds MUB crossed below its ratio MA. Short duration holds 2 of 2 above their ratio MA, and long duration stays at 0 of 1.
Clean Energy ICLN crossed above its 20D MA, and its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY stays below its ratio MA. Biotechnology IBB crossed below its 20D MA. Copper and agriculture both crossed above their 20D MA.
Featured ETF: Utilities Select Sector XLU
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLU | Utilities Select Sector | -4.57% |
| Cross-up | XLY | Consumer Discretionary Select Sector | -1.78% |
| Cross-up | RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | -1.66% |
| Cross-up | ACWV | iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF | -1.28% |
| Cross-up | VLUE | iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | -1.02% |
| Cross-up | VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF | -0.59% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | -0.57% |
| Cross-down | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -2.73% |
| Cross-down | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | -3.74% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | MUB | iShares National Muni Bond ETF | -0.35% |
| Cross-down | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | -0.41% |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | -4.21% |
| Cross-down | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | -2.04% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | unch. |
Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | CPER | United States Copper LP | -1.33% |
| Cross-up | DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | -0.96% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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