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Tactical Trends: Asia and Growth Reclaim Ground Across Equities
Price participation improved; relative breadth holds at 19%
Asia-Pacific and growth-sensitive leadership strengthened into the October 2 close. In the ETF universe, 16 of 59 equity ETFs (27%, +11.9pp) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), and 11 of 58 (19%, +3.5pp) outperform the S&P 500 SPY on a ratio basis. Japan EWJ, Brazil EWZ, Taiwan, South Korea, and US growth populate the leader cluster. Low-volatility, developed ex-US, China, and value-oriented segments of the field sit below both thresholds. US broad-market and global beta exposures recovered in price without matching relative strength.
Fixed income shows no price leaders at the close. Zero of 17 bond ETFs trade above their 20D MA, and 7 of 16 outperform Aggregate Bonds AGG. Short duration, intermediate Treasuries, munis, and preferreds populate the leader cluster. EM debt, high yield, investment grade, and Long Treasury TLT populate the laggard cluster.
Eight of 15 specialty ETFs hold above their 20D MA. Leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY clusters in Semiconductors SMH, momentum, crypto-linked proxies, and infrastructure. Gold, clean energy, real estate, and low-volatility specialty names lag. Broad Commodities PDBC crossed below its 20D MA and below its ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Japan EWJ, Taiwan EWT, and U.S. growth names align on daily, weekly, and monthly relative leadership. Low-volatility, China, developed ex-US, and dividend-heavy exposures align on the lagging side, with Germany EWG and Dow Dividend DVY among the weakest names.
Fixed income shows 100% cross-timescale alignment. Preferred Stock PFF crossed above its ratio MA vs Aggregate Bonds AGG, and International Aggregate BNDX, intermediate Treasuries, munis, and short duration hold the relative lead over EM debt, investment grade credit, and long duration.
Broad Commodities PDBC rose 1.83% over the trailing 20-day window and crossed below its 20D MA. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed below its ratio MA after a 2.05% relative 20-day gain.
Featured ETF: Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF PDBC
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF | -1.37% |
| Cross-up | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | -1.34% |
| Cross-up | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF | -0.52% |
| Cross-up | EWZ | iShares MSCI Brazil ETF | +0.16% |
| Cross-up | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | +0.30% |
| Cross-up | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | +1.04% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | EWZ | iShares MSCI Brazil ETF | +0.37% |
| Cross-up | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | +1.25% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | PFF | iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | +0.34% |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | -1.48% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | -1.27% |
Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | PDBC | Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | +1.83% |
Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | PDBC | Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | +2.05% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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