Regime Trends: Developed Ex-US and Dividend Leadership Gain Ground

Price participation is broad; relative confirmation trails by 35pp

International and income leadership strengthened into the July 31 close, led by Dev. Markets EFA and Select Dividend DVY on relative-strength confirmations vs S&P 500 SPY. Across our ETF universe, 53 of 59 equity ETFs (90%, unchanged on the month) hold above their 10-month moving average (10M MA), while 32 of 58 (55%, +10.3pp) hold above their 10-month ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY, leaving a 35pp price-relative gap. Low-volatility, emerging-markets, and several growth-heavy exposures sit in the price-above, benchmark-lagging cluster, so price participation is broad and leadership is only partly confirmed.

Only 5 of 17 fixed-income ETFs (29%) hold above their 10M MA, and price leadership is limited to high-yield credit, EM debt, and short duration. Against Aggregate Bonds AGG, intermediate Treasuries, TIPS, preferreds, and parts of credit lead on a relative basis, while long-duration Treasuries and Investment Grade Credit LQD lag. The bond cross-section separates stability and intermediate duration from long rate sensitivity.

Specialty leadership is limited to semiconductors, real estate, and biotech, with 6 of 15 ETFs beating the S&P 500 SPY; gold, bitcoin proxies, and Clean Energy ICLN fill the laggard cluster. Broad Commodities PDBC crossed above its 10-month ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY, and cross-timescale strength concentrates in oil and copper. Hard-asset leadership is selective.

10-Month Regime Breadth

Key Takeaways

Brazil EWZ, up 23.53% over the trailing 10-month window, crossed above its 10-month moving average. EWZ holds above its 10M MA while lagging the S&P 500 SPY on a relative basis, alongside parts of the broader international equity bucket. International price recovery exceeds relative leadership.

3-7yr Treasuries IEI, TIPS TIP, and Preferred Stock PFF crossed above their 10-month ratio moving average versus Aggregate Bonds AGG. Global Bonds BNDX, Mortgage-Backed MBB, and Corporate Credit VCIT crossed below their 10M MA. Fixed-income leadership concentrates in intermediate duration and relative defense.

Global REITs REET and Real Estate VNQ crossed above their 10-month ratio moving average versus S&P 500 SPY, while Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ and Clean Energy ICLN crossed below. Broad Commodities PDBC crossed above its 10-month ratio moving average versus S&P 500 SPY and joins oil and copper in the cross-timescale leader cluster. Hard-asset participation is selective across specialty and commodities.

FEATURED ETF: iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M perf
Cross-up	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	+23.5%
Cross-down	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	+3.8%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M rel perf
Cross-up	XLF	Financial Select Sector	-5.4%
Cross-up	XLRE	The Real Estate Select Sector	-2.9%
Cross-up	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	+2.9%
Cross-up	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+3.1%
Cross-up	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	+3.2%
Cross-up	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	+3.4%
Cross-up	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	+3.5%
Cross-up	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	+5.5%
Cross-up	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	+12.3%
Cross-up	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+12.4%
Cross-up	XLE	Energy Select Sector	+20.5%
Cross-down	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	+8.2%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+6.3%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+1.7%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+1.4%
Cross-down	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	+1.0%

Fixed Income: Price vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M perf
Cross-down	MUB	iShares National Muni Bond ETF	+1.9%
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	+1.2%
Cross-down	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	+0.5%
Cross-down	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	+0.5%
Cross-down	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	+0.5%
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-1.1%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M rel perf
Cross-up	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	unch.
Cross-up	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-up	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	+0.3%
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-1.4%

Specialty: Price vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M perf
Cross-down	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	+14.6%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M rel perf
Cross-up	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-1.5%
Cross-up	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	+0.9%
Cross-down	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	+1.3%
Cross-down	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	-1.8%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 10-month MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	10M rel perf
Cross-up	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	+20.1%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.