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Intermediate Market Trends: Low Vol and Dividends Claim Equity Leadership
Twenty price breaks lower outweighed eight upside crosses
Five defensive leader clusters define the ETF universe into October 16: low volatility, dividend income, consumer staples, healthcare, and energy. Only 13 of 59 equity ETFs (22%, -13.6pp on the week just closed) hold above their 13-week moving average (13W MA), and only 13 of 58 beat the S&P 500 SPY on a ratio MA basis (22%, +5.2pp). Technology, growth, emerging markets, and Asia-Pacific exposures fill the laggard cluster. Consumer Staples XLP and Dividend Quality SCHD joined the relative leaders.
Fixed income leadership vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG is limited to short duration, intermediate Treasuries, TIPS, and International Aggregate. Short TIPS VTIP is the only bond ETF above its 13-week average, 1 of 17 across fixed income. High Yield HYG moved into the relative laggard cluster.
Specialty leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY is limited to alternatives, bitcoin, and minimum-volatility equity. Semiconductors, momentum, real estate, and clean energy fill the laggard cluster. Long/Short Equity FTLS leads the relative winners. Copper CPER crossed below its 13-week average, and oil with broad commodities led the commodity cross-section.
13-Week Intermediate Breadth
Key Takeaways
Taiwan EWT, up 9.18% over the trailing 13-week window, crossed below its 13W MA. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed below its ratio moving average. South Korea EWY and Japan EWJ occupy the same regional laggard cluster.
Short duration holds the only price leadership in bonds: 1 of 2 short-duration ETFs hold above their 13-week averages, and 0 of 1 long-duration names do. TIPS TIP and intermediate Treasuries lead relative to the Aggregate Bonds AGG. High Yield Bonds JNK and preferreds occupy the laggard cluster.
Semiconductors SMH and Momentum Factor MTUM crossed below both price and ratio moving averages vs the S&P 500 SPY. Long/Short Equity FTLS and Min Volatility USMV crossed above their ratio moving averages. Copper CPER and Agriculture Basket DBA crossed below their 13-week averages.
Featured ETF: iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF EWT
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | SDY | SPDR S&P Dividend ETF | +0.8% |
| Cross-up | VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF | +2.2% |
| Cross-up | EWU | iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF | +2.3% |
| Cross-up | SPYV | S&P 500 Value ETF | +2.3% |
| Cross-up | XLP | Consumer Staples Select Sector | +3.5% |
| Cross-up | EFAV | iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF | +3.8% |
| Cross-up | SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | +5.2% |
| Cross-down | EWT | iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | +9.2% |
| Cross-down | IYW | iShares U.S. Technology ETF | +5.0% |
| Cross-down | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | +4.9% |
| Cross-down | XLK | Technology Select Sector | +4.6% |
| Cross-down | SPYG | S&P 500 Growth ETF | +3.6% |
| Cross-down | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | +2.2% |
| Cross-down | QQQ | Invesco QQQ | +2.2% |
| Cross-down | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF | +2.2% |
| Cross-down | VLUE | iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | +2.0% |
| Cross-down | IWF | iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF | +1.9% |
| Cross-down | VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF | +1.6% |
| Cross-down | VWO | Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF | +0.5% |
| Cross-down | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -0.7% |
| Cross-down | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | -7.4% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | SDY | SPDR S&P Dividend ETF | -2.1% |
| Cross-up | VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF | -0.8% |
| Cross-up | EWU | iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF | -0.6% |
| Cross-up | SPYV | S&P 500 Value ETF | -0.6% |
| Cross-up | JEPI | JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF | -0.1% |
| Cross-up | XLP | Consumer Staples Select Sector | +0.6% |
| Cross-up | EFAV | iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF | +0.8% |
| Cross-up | ACWV | iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF | +1.7% |
| Cross-up | SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | +2.2% |
| Cross-down | EWT | iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | +6.1% |
| Cross-down | IYW | iShares U.S. Technology ETF | +2.0% |
| Cross-down | XLK | Technology Select Sector | +1.6% |
| Cross-down | SPYG | S&P 500 Growth ETF | +0.6% |
| Cross-down | QQQ | Invesco QQQ | -0.7% |
| Cross-down | IWF | iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF | -1.1% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VTIP | Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF | -0.2% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | -0.2% |
| Cross-down | JNK | SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF | -0.4% |
Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | +6.5% |
| Cross-down | JEPQ | JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF | +3.9% |
| Cross-down | MTUM | iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF | -2.8% |
| Cross-down | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -3.0% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | +0.2% |
| Cross-up | USMV | iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF | +2.2% |
| Cross-down | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | +3.4% |
| Cross-down | JEPQ | JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF | +0.9% |
| Cross-down | MTUM | iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF | -5.5% |
| Cross-down | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -5.8% |
Commodities: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | CPER | United States Copper LP | +4.2% |
| Cross-down | DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | +1.4% |
Related
- Tactical Market Trends: Defensive Equity Leadership Shifts Overseas
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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