Intermediate Market Trends: Dividend and Low-Volatility Lead Equity
16 of 59 equity ETFs hold above their 13-week MA, up 5.1pp on the week.
Low-volatility and dividend leadership define equity at the October 23 close, with 16 of 59 ETFs (27%, +5.1pp on the week) above their 13-week moving average (13W MA) and 20 of 58 ETFs (34%, +12.1pp) outperforming the S&P 500 SPY. Leadership spans 5 themes: low-volatility, dividend-heavy US equity, equal weight, cyclical materials and energy, and defensive staples and utilities. Deterioration centers on 4 themes: emerging markets, developed ex-US, Asia-Pacific, and momentum. Confirmation is limited. Price participation is below one-third of our ETF universe. Four equity ETFs are below their price MA and above their ratio MA vs SPY, led by developed-market and quality exposures.
Fixed income leadership is limited to duration and inflation-linked exposures. Nine of 17 ETFs hold above their 13-week MA. Four of 16 outperform the Aggregate Bonds AGG. TIPS TIP and long Treasuries lead the relative winners. Core aggregate, international aggregate, intermediate Treasuries, and short corporate credit are above their price MA and below their ratio MA vs AGG.
Specialty leadership is limited to biotechnology, low-volatility, and the global alternative cluster that includes crypto-linked exposures. Six of 15 specialty ETFs hold above their 13-week MA. Gold, clean energy, real estate, and semiconductors fill the laggard cluster vs the S&P 500 SPY.
Key Takeaways
Biotechnology IBB, up 10.42% over the trailing 13-week window, crossed above its 13W MA. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed above its ratio MA, up 7.10% over the trailing 13-week window.
Cross-timescale equity alignment reaches 51%. Low-volatility, Brazil equity, and dividend-heavy US equity hold relative leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY across daily, weekly, and monthly views. Growth-sensitive US equity, emerging markets, and Asia-Pacific exposures fill the aligned laggard group.
Cross-timescale fixed-income alignment is 18%. Short duration supplies 2 price leaders and long duration 1. Relative leadership vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG narrows to inflation-linked bonds, broad munis, and long Treasuries. Credit and EM debt fill the aligned laggard group.
Featured ETF: iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLU | Utilities Select Sector | -7.4% |
| Cross-up | DVY | iShares Select Dividend ETF | -0.2% |
| Cross-up | VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF | +0.1% |
| Cross-up | XLB | Materials Select Sector | +0.6% |
| Cross-up | RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | +1.8% |
| Cross-down | QUAL | iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | +3.0% |
| Cross-down | EWU | iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF | +0.6% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLU | Utilities Select Sector | -10.2% |
| Cross-up | DVY | iShares Select Dividend ETF | -3.2% |
| Cross-up | VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF | -2.9% |
| Cross-up | XLB | Materials Select Sector | -2.5% |
| Cross-up | VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF | -2.4% |
| Cross-up | DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF | -2.2% |
| Cross-up | RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | -1.3% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | MUB | iShares National Muni Bond ETF | -1.2% |
| Cross-up | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -1.1% |
| Cross-up | VGIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF | -0.6% |
| Cross-up | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.5% |
| Cross-up | BNDX | Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF | -0.5% |
| Cross-up | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | -0.4% |
| Cross-up | VCSH | Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF | unch. |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | MUB | iShares National Muni Bond ETF | -0.7% |
| Cross-up | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.6% |
| Cross-down | VCSH | Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF | +0.6% |
| Cross-down | BNDX | Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | VGIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF | unch. |
Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | +10.4% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 13W rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | +7.1% |
Related
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- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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