Growth and Metals Lead September Market Moves

October 1, 2025

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Welcome to our Quantitative Outlook, your monthly comprehensive guide to the latest trends and developments in Quantlake’s world of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

September highlighted clear style splits: growth ETFs gained more than 5%, emerging markets advanced, and precious metals surged. Bonds moved higher across categories, while dividend funds, small caps, and oil showed muted or negative results.

🔹 Equity Markets

Growth strength defined September. iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF), Invesco QQQ (QQQ), and SPDR S&P 500 Growth (SPYG) each gained more than 5%, keeping leadership concentrated at the top end of the market. Broader benchmarks followed—SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) rose 3.6% and Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) 3.4%, with Vanguard Total World (VT) matching that pace. Emerging markets added breadth, led by iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) up 7.1% and Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) up 5.7%. Dividend strategies split, as Schwab US Dividend Equity (SCHD) fell 1.3% while Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VYM) rose 1.9%. Mid- and small-caps lagged, with SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value (MDYV) flat and SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) barely positive. All ratings remain Positive, with no upgrades or downgrades.

🔹 Bond Markets

Long Treasuries staged a rebound, with iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) up 3.6% and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VGLT) up 3.1%. Both remain rated Negative, showing duration risk is still treated with caution. Investment-grade corporates advanced, led by iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) at 1.9%. Core aggregates such as iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) and Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) added 1.1%. High yield held steady—SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond (JNK) gained 1.0%, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) 0.9%. Emerging market debt (EMB) also strengthened, up 1.6%, while ultra-short exposures stayed near 0.3%–0.4%. All ratings remain unchanged.

🔹 Alternative Assets

Precious metals led September’s moves. iShares Silver (SLV) surged 17.1%, while iShares Gold (IAU) and SPDR Gold (GLD) each advanced 11.8%. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) gained 5.6%, extending its Positive-rated run. Real estate was muted, with Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) and iShares U.S. Real Estate (IYR) both flat at 0.1%. Broader commodities edged up through Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) at 1.4%, while United States Oil Fund (USO) declined 1.5%. All ratings remain unchanged.

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Takeaways

Our outlook stays grounded in patience and discipline. We interpret ETF ratings through a systematic lens, focusing on long-term investing and filtering short-term moves with clarity and consistency.

Happy Long-Term Investing!

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Romain Gandon, CEO & Founder of Quantlake
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About Quantlake's Ratings

Our AI-powered ratings combine market trends, economic indicators, and unstructured data analysis. Updated monthly after the last trading day, ratings fall into two categories:

Positive: Optimistic outlook suggesting maintaining or increasing exposure

Negative: Cautious view indicating potential exposure reduction