Daily SPY Candlestick: Bullish Belt Hold

Bullish Belt Hold in Greed: Return Profile Broadly Unchanged vs the Global Baseline

Tuesday’s Bullish Belt Hold followed a +0.8% SPY session and marks a bullish reversal, with an open at the low and a strong real body that shows buying conviction.

Since 2009, the pattern appeared 114 times, and the one-month profile resolved higher 64.9% of the time, with a +1.4% median return, a +0.9% average return, and a +0.66 Sharpe. Direction and payoff sat above zero across the full sample. The middle of the distribution stayed positive-to-mixed, with the interquartile range running from -0.9% to +3.7%. Skew sat at -0.4 and kurtosis at +0.9, leaving the baseline profile tilted toward gains without a large tail distortion.

The regime sample includes 19 observations, so regime statistics are indicative only. In Quantlake Herd Index (QHI) Greed, a crowd-sentiment regime between 60 and 80 points, the profile tracked the baseline closely: the 1-month up rate improved to 68.4%, the average return edged up to +1.0%, and the median held at +1.4%. The main regime change sat in dispersion rather than direction, with the interquartile range compressing to -0.4% to +2.5% and the tail range narrowing to -3.1% to +4.3%. The setup kept the same central tendency with a tighter outcome band and a higher +1.05 Sharpe.

Statistical analysis chart for $SPY Bullish Belt Hold. In the Greed regime (60-80 pts), this pattern shows a 1-month forward up move frequency of 68.4%.

Warning: low sample (n<30), statistical significance is reduced.

SPY Bullish Belt Hold: 1-Month Historical Performance (All Regimes)

Metric	All Regimes (n=114)	QHI Greed (60-80) (n=19)
Up / Down	Up 74 (64.9%) \| Down 40 (35.1%) [n=114]	Up 13 (68.4%) \| Down 6 (31.6%) [n=19]
Avg / Median	+0.9% (Median +1.4%)	+1.0% (Median +1.4%)
Expected Range (p25–p75)	-0.9% to +3.7%	-0.4% to +2.5%
Tail Risk (p10–p90)	-5.5% to +5.8%	-3.1% to +4.3%
Full Range (min–max)	-11.9% to +14.8%	-6.6% to +6.9%
Skew & Kurt	Skew γ1 -0.4 \| Kurt γ2 +0.9	Skew γ1 +nan \| Kurt γ2 +nan
Sharpe Ratio	+0.66	+1.05

The full QHI historical series since September 1, 2009 is available via the Quantlake API for systematic integration. Learn more about the QHI methodology →
Data: 30 Jun 2026 · Daily Time Scale.

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Definitions

Quantlake Herd Index (QHI)

The Quantlake Herd Index (QHI) is a proprietary cross-asset behavioral sentiment composite ranging from 0 to 100 that measures extremes in investor psychology across the U.S. financial system.

It aggregates signals from U.S. equity momentum and breadth, equity market concentration dynamics, credit market risk appetite (high-yield vs investment-grade demand), implied volatility conditions, and credit spread behavior. These inputs are normalized into a single behavioral risk barometer reflecting the balance between risk-averse and risk-on investor behavior.

Because markets are influenced by behavioral biases, sentiment extremes frequently precede mean reversion in forward returns.

QHI Regimes

0–20: Extreme Fear

20–40: Fear

40–60: Neutral

60–80: Greed

80–100: Extreme Greed

Statistical Terms

Median
The midpoint of the return distribution — 50% of outcomes fell above and 50% below this value. Less sensitive to extreme outliers than the average.

p25 / p75 (Interquartile Range)
The range within which the middle 50% of historical outcomes fell. p25 marks the 25th percentile (bottom of the range); p75 marks the 75th percentile (top). A tighter range indicates a more predictable pattern; a wide range reflects high dispersion.

p10 / p90 (Tail Interval)
The range encompassing the middle 80% of historical outcomes. P10 represents the 10th percentile (the "downside" threshold), while P90 represents the 90th percentile (the "upside" threshold). Unlike the Interquartile Range, this metric captures the shoulders of the distribution, providing a clearer view of potential tail risk and extreme performance potential.

Skew (γ1 — Skewness)
Measures the asymmetry of the return distribution. A negative skew (γ1 < 0) signals a left-tailed distribution — most outcomes cluster on the positive side, but the rare negative outcomes can be severely large. A positive skew (γ1 > 0) is the opposite.

Kurt (γ2 — Excess Kurtosis)
Measures tail density relative to a normal distribution. A high positive value (Leptokurtic) indicates fat tails — extreme events occur more frequently than a normal distribution would predict. A negative value (Platykurtic) indicates thinner tails.

Mesokurtic
A kurtosis value typically within a range of -0.5 to +0.5, consistent with a normal (Gaussian) distribution. Tail risk is neither elevated nor suppressed relative to standard statistical models.

Gaussian (Normal Distribution)
The classic bell-curve distribution. When a pattern's moments are described as "consistent with Gaussian expectations," it means tail risk behaves as standard statistical models would predict — no unusual concentration of extreme outcomes.

Sharpe Ratio (annualised)
Measures risk-adjusted return — the average 1-month forward return divided by its standard deviation, scaled to an annual rate (×√12). A ratio above 1.0 indicates strong return per unit of risk; below 0.5 is weak; negative means the average outcome was a loss. It does not capture skewness or tail risk, so it should be read alongside the distribution metrics above.