Daily Movers: Semiconductors SMH Rose 3.3%

Monday fit a growth-over-hard-assets extension, with leadership concentrated in technology-linked risk and away from bullion-sensitive exposure. Materials XLB fell 1.82%, India INDA lost 0.77%, Gold GLD dropped 1.35%, and GDX declined 1.71%. Semiconductors SMH rose 3.33%, Taiwan EWT gained 2.90%, Technology IYW climbed 2.73%, and Momentum MTUM advanced 3.15%. The current signal backdrop matched that split: China FXI and MCHI are oversold, Energy XLE is compressed, and EMB is compressed.

Equity: Tech and Taiwan led, materials and India lagged

Movers

Leaders: Taiwan EWT +2.90% (3M: +52.2%), US Technology IYW +2.73% (3M: +39.9%)

Laggards: Materials XLB -1.82% (3M: +4.0%), India INDA -0.77% (3M: +7.3%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: South Korea EWY +63.2%, Taiwan EWT +52.2%, Value Factor VLUE +42.9%

Weak: Energy XLE -13.7%, China Large Cap FXI -8.3%, China MCHI -6.7%

Fixed Income: Credit-sensitive income led, intermediates lagged

Movers

Leaders: Preferred Stock PFF +0.82% (3M: +2.9%), EM Sovereign Bonds EMB +0.29% (3M: +5.6%)

Laggards: 3-7yr Treasuries IEI -0.03% (3M: +0.8%), Int. Treasuries VGIT +0.02% (3M: +1.0%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: EM Sovereign Bonds EMB +5.6%, Long Treasuries TLT +3.3%, High Yield Bonds JNK +3.2%

Weak: 3-7yr Treasuries IEI +0.8%, Int. Treasuries VGIT +1.0%, Short TIPS VTIP +1.0%

Specialty: Semis and momentum led, gold and miners lagged

Movers

Leaders: Semiconductors SMH +3.33% (3M: +68.9%), Momentum Factor MTUM +3.15% (3M: +42.7%)

Laggards: Gold Miners GDX -1.71% (3M: -11.8%), Gold GLD -1.35% (3M: -11.1%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Semiconductors SMH +68.9%, Momentum Factor MTUM +42.7%, Biotechnology IBB +18.3%

Weak: Ethereum Trust ETHA -18.4%, Gold Miners GDX -11.8%, Gold GLD -11.1%

Notable Setups

Equity Reversal setup: Energy XLE (vol compression building in 3M underperformers)

Equity Volatility Compression: India INDA, Energy XLE

Equity Volatility Expansion: Russell Growth IWF, US Technology IYW, Nasdaq 100 QQQ

Equity Overbought: S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG, Healthcare XLV

Equity Oversold: China Large Cap FXI, China MCHI

Fixed Income Volatility Compression: Aggregate Bonds AGG, Global Bonds BNDX, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB

Specialty Exhaustion risk: Biotechnology IBB (3M leaders, flashing overbought)

Specialty Volatility Expansion: Ethereum Trust ETHA, Biotechnology IBB, Bitcoin Trust IBIT

Specialty Overbought: Biotechnology IBB

Cross-Asset Read

Growth-over-hard-assets framed the cross-asset tape, with technology-linked risk leading equities and specialty funds while bullion-sensitive exposure lagged. The 3M leadership stack centers on SMH (+68.9%), EWY (+63.2%), EWT (+52.2%), VLUE (+42.9%), and MTUM (+42.7%), and Monday's gains in EWT, IYW, SMH, and MTUM extended those standing uptrends; GLD and GDX aligned with the weak tail at -11.1% and -11.8% over three months. Volatility expands in IYW, QQQ, IWF, IBB, ETHA, and IBIT, while compression sits in EMB, AGG, BNDX, INDA, and XLE; the cross-section is a growth-led regime with risk concentrated in innovation beta and hard-asset weakness.

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.