Daily Movers: Semiconductors SMH Rose 3.8%

Tuesday fit a growth-over-duration extension, led by semiconductors. Real Estate XLRE fell 1.98%, Consumer Staples XLP dropped 1.54%, Long Treasuries TLT lost 1.18%, and Ether ETHA declined 2.86%. Semiconductors SMH rose 3.78%, Technology XLK gained 2.76%, Taiwan EWT advanced 2.67%, and Clean Energy ICLN climbed 3.07%. Nasdaq 100 QQQ sits in vol expansion, China FXI is oversold, and Energy XLE is compressed.

Equity: Growth beta led, defensives lagged

Movers

Leaders: Technology XLK +2.76% (3M: +49.6%), Taiwan EWT +2.67% (3M: +57.5%)

Laggards: Real Estate XLRE -1.98% (3M: +10.5%), Consumer Staples XLP -1.54% (3M: +2.2%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: South Korea EWY +73.4%, Taiwan EWT +57.5%, Technology XLK +49.6%

Weak: Energy XLE -13.7%, China Large Cap FXI -9.1%, China MCHI -6.5%

Fixed Income: Credit outperformed, duration lagged

Movers

Leaders: High Yield Bonds JNK -0.03% (3M: +3.5%), High Yield HYG -0.05% (3M: +3.0%)

Laggards: Long Treasuries TLT -1.18% (3M: +0.7%), Investment Grade Credit LQD -0.57% (3M: +1.9%)

3M Leaderboard (within FI scale)

Strong: EM Sovereign Bonds EMB +5.0%, High Yield Bonds JNK +3.5%, High Yield HYG +3.0%

Weak: 3-7yr Treasuries IEI +0.1%, Int. Treasuries VGIT +0.2%, 7-10yr Treasuries IEF +0.3%

Specialty: Tech and clean energy led, crypto lagged

Movers

Leaders: Semiconductors SMH +3.78% (3M: +80.9%), Clean Energy ICLN +3.07% (3M: +17.3%)

Laggards: Ethereum Trust ETHA -2.86% (3M: -22.1%), Bitcoin Trust IBIT -2.60% (3M: -11.7%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Semiconductors SMH +80.9%, Momentum Factor MTUM +48.7%, Infrastructure PAVE +20.0%

Weak: Ethereum Trust ETHA -22.1%, Gold Miners GDX -12.0%, Bitcoin Trust IBIT -11.7%

Notable Setups

Equity Reversal setup: Energy XLE (vol compression building in 3M underperformers)

Equity Volatility Compression: India INDA, Energy XLE

Equity Volatility Expansion: Russell Growth IWF, US Technology IYW, Nasdaq 100 QQQ

Equity Overbought: Small-Cap IJR, S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG

Equity Oversold: China Large Cap FXI

Fixed Income Volatility Compression: Aggregate Bonds AGG, Global Bonds BNDX, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB

Specialty Volatility Expansion: Ethereum Trust ETHA, Biotechnology IBB, Bitcoin Trust IBIT

Specialty Overbought: Biotechnology IBB

Cross-Asset Read

Growth over duration framed Tuesday, with semiconductor leadership aligned against long-duration weakness across the tape. The 3M leadership stack centers on SMH, EWY, EWT, and XLK, and Tuesday extended the standing uptrends in SMH, EWT, XLK, and ICLN; ETHA and IBIT extended established downtrends, and JNK and HYG slipped against moderate 3M gains. Volatility expands in QQQ, IWF, IYW, ETHA, and IBIT, and compresses in XLE, INDA, AGG, BNDX, and EMB; the regime is bifurcated, with five expansion flags concentrated in growth and crypto proxies and five compression flags concentrated in energy and fixed income.

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.