Intermediate Trends: Equities Recover Into a Benchmark-Led Tape

Price participation widened as SPY-relative leadership stayed selective

Equities in our ETF universe recovered decisively in price this week, while leadership stayed tightly benchmark-led. 52 of 59 ETFs (88%, +11.9pp) held above their 13-week moving average, yet only 10 of 58 (17%, +3.5pp) outperformed the S&P 500 SPY, leaving a +71pp gap. US growth, technology, small caps, and select Asia carried the relative strength, while low-volatility, developed ex-US, and dividend-heavy exposures recovered price damage.

Fixed income still reflects defensive rotation rather than a full recovery. Just 6 of 17 ETFs (35%, +11.8pp) held above their 13-week moving average, but 12 of 16 (75%, +6.2pp) beat the Aggregate Bonds AGG, a -40pp gap driven by credit, mortgages, and short duration over Treasuries and long duration. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB reclaimed its 13-week moving average, and Mortgage-Backed MBB crossed above its ratio moving average versus AGG.

Specialty stayed benchmark-led as 12 of 15 ETFs (80%, unchanged on the week) held above their 13-week moving average, while only 3 of 15 (20%, -6.7pp) outperformed the S&P 500 SPY, leaving a +60pp gap. Semiconductors, momentum, and clean energy carried the only clear relative leadership. Ethereum Trust ETHA slipped back below its 13-week moving average. In commodities, Copper CPER crossed above its ratio moving average versus the S&P 500 SPY from a still-negative 13-week return base, while broad commodities lost relative traction. Confirmation remains uneven across the non-core parts of our coverage.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

• Among the new weekly relative crosses in equity, Emg. Markets EEM and Russell 2000 IWM moved above their 13-week ratio moving averages versus the S&P 500 SPY from still-negative 13-week returns. We treat them as early stabilization, not established leadership. The cleaner multi-horizon relative leadership sits with Taiwan equity, South Korea and US growth-heavy exposures.

• Duration rotation remained the key bond message. Global Bonds BNDX and EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed above their 13-week moving averages, while relative leadership versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG stayed with Mortgage-Backed MBB, high yield and short-duration credit. Stability and carry preference led. Government bonds and long duration did not.

• Broad Commodities PDBC with a +14.63% period relative return versus SPY crossed below its 13-week ratio moving average. In the same non-equity complex, Bitcoin Trust IBIT also crossed below its 13-week ratio moving average versus the S&P 500 SPY despite a still-positive relative lookback, while Copper CPER crossed above its ratio moving average versus SPY from a still-negative base.

FEATURED ETF — Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF PDBC vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 13W MA)

• XLV - Health Care Select Sector · 13W perf: -4.0%

• EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF · -3.2%

• SDY - SPDR® S&P Dividend ETF · -2.7%

• EFAV - iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF · -2.6%

• EWU - iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF · -2.0%

• ACWV - iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF · -1.0%

• DVY - iShares Select Dividend ETF · unch.

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 13W MA)

None for the week

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 13W MA vs SPY)

• EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF · 13W relative perf: -2.6%

• IWM - iShares Russell 2000 ETF · -0.5%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 13W MA vs SPY)

None for the week

FIXED INCOME

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 13W MA)

• EMB - iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF · 13W perf: -1.2%

• BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond · -1.2%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 13W MA)

None for the week

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 13W MA vs AGG)

• MBB - iShares MBS ETF · 13W relative perf: +0.1%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 13W MA vs AGG)

None for the week

SPECIALTY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 13W MA)

• IBB - iShares Biotechnology ETF · 13W perf: -3.1%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 13W MA)

• ETHA - iShares Ethereum Trust ETF · 13W perf: +4.6%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 13W MA vs SPY)

None for the week

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 13W MA vs SPY)

• IBIT - iShares Bitcoin · 13W relative perf: +3.1%

COMMODITIES

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 13W MA)

None for the week

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 13W MA)

None for the week

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 13W MA vs SPY)

• CPER - United States Copper LP · 13W relative perf: -0.8%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 13W MA vs SPY)

• PDBC - Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF · 13W relative perf: +14.6%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.