Daily Tactical: Equities Turn Benchmark-Led as Ex-US Fades

Price participation broadened while leadership stayed concentrated

By end of day, equities across our ETF universe turned more benchmark-led: 51 of 59 ETFs (86%, +6.8pp) held above their 20-day moving average, yet only 12 of 58 ETFs (21%, -3.5pp) beat the S&P 500 SPY, leaving a +66pp gap. Price participation spread into low-volatility, developed ex-US, emerging markets and several US equity specialty, but relative leadership stayed concentrated in US growth, technology, healthcare, quality, value, and select Asia through Taiwan and South Korea. Much of the ex-US and defensive recovery held above its moving average without benchmark confirmation.

Fixed income keeps a broad-bear read across our coverage: 3 of 17 ETFs (18%, unchanged on the day) held above their 20-day moving average, while 6 of 16 ETFs (38%, unchanged on the day) outperformed the Aggregate Bonds AGG, a -20pp gap. High-yield credit and international aggregate remained the only clear price leaders, while long-duration Treasuries, core duration and inflation-linked exposure stayed weak. The relative winners below their moving averages were mortgage-backed and short-duration credit. We read that as stability.

Specialty showed the opposite inflection: 9 of 15 ETFs (60%, -6.7pp) held above their 20-day moving average even as only 4 of 15 ETFs (27%, +6.7pp) beat the S&P 500 SPY, with semiconductors, momentum, clean energy and minimum volatility improving while biotech, gold-linked and several real estate and income specialty lagged. In commodities, oil rolled back below its 20-day moving average, while copper remained the only cross-timescale leader and agriculture the laggard. Confirmation stayed narrow outside the core equity winners.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

• Equity leadership split. Dow Jones DIA and Quality Factor QUAL crossed above their ratio moving averages versus the S&P 500 SPY, but both still carried negative 20-day relative returns. Early stabilization. Dividend Quality SCHD also crossed above and came with a +0.75% 20-day relative return, while Germany EWG, Europe VGK, and Developed Markets VEA crossed below with negative relative returns. Across timescales, Taiwan and South Korea remained the cleaner relative leaders.

• In fixed income, Mortgage-Backed MBB crossed above its ratio moving average versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG with a slightly negative 20-day relative return, while Short TIPS VTIP crossed below with a +0.59% 20-day relative return. Leadership faded without a clean break. The duration split remains intact in our coverage. Long-duration Treasuries and core government exposure still lag, while short-duration credit and mortgage-backed exposure hold the better relative footing. In specialty, Min Volatility USMV crossed above its ratio moving average versus the S&P 500 SPY with a -1.40% 20-day relative return, and Biotechnology IBB crossed below its 20-day moving average.

• Oil USO with a +6.44% period return crossed below its 20-day moving average. Commodity leadership remains narrow. Copper is the only cross-timescale leader, and agriculture is the laggard.

FEATURED ETF — United States Oil Fund LP USO

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

• XLU - Utilities Select Sector · 20D perf: -1.80%

• JEPI - JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF · -0.96%

• MDYV - SPDR® S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF · -0.23%

• SLYG - SPDR® S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF · +0.95%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

• DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF · 20D relative perf: -1.49%

• QUAL - iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF · -1.03%

• SCHD - Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF · +0.75%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

• IVLU - iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF · 20D relative perf: -0.18%

• VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets · -0.99%

• IDV - iShares International Select Dividend ETF · -1.69%

• VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe · -2.70%

• EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF · -2.99%

FIXED INCOME

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs AGG)

• MBB - iShares MBS ETF · 20D relative perf: unch.

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs AGG)

• VTIP - Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities · 20D relative perf: +0.59%

SPECIALTY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

• IBB - iShares Biotechnology ETF · 20D perf: -0.58%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

• USMV - iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF · 20D relative perf: -1.40%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

COMMODITIES

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

• USO - United States Oil Fund LP · 20D perf: +6.44%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.