Tactical Trends: U.S. Growth Slips as Dividend and Ex-US Take the Lead

Price breadth now matches the income and international leader set.

U.S. growth and small-cap weakness leads equity coverage on August 24, with 40 of 59 equity ETFs (68%, -17.0pp) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 40 of 58 (69%, +8.6pp) above their 20-day ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY). Nine laggards cluster in U.S. growth, small caps, China, and Japan, and 15 leaders span low-volatility, dividend, quality, Brazil, and developed ex-US exposure. The equity field aligns price participation with relative leadership in income, lower-volatility, and international themes.

Fixed income holds broad price participation, with 13 of 17 ETFs above 20D MA and 6 of 16 above 20D ratio MA vs Aggregate Bonds AGG. Relative leaders concentrate in high-yield credit, inflation-linked bonds, and Long Treasuries TLT, while U.S. Core Aggregate AGG, EM debt, intermediate Treasuries, and investment grade credit trade above 20D MA and lag the benchmark. Bond leadership concentrates in credit and selected duration.

Specialty leadership centers in hard assets and alternatives, with 10 of 15 above both 20D MA and 20D ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY; gold, gold miners, bitcoin, and long/short equity fill the leader cluster, while clean energy, infrastructure, and semiconductors lag. Commodities add aligned strength in oil, broad commodities, and copper. The specialty and commodity book tilts toward hard assets and alternatives.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Brazil EWZ, down 1.95% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20-day moving average. EWZ also crossed above its 20D ratio MA versus S&P 500 SPY. Brazil moves into the aligned equity leader cluster.

Equity cross-timescale alignment is 64%, and Select Dividend DVY plus Quality Factor QUAL hold in the relative leader set versus S&P 500 SPY, while Japan EWJ and Russell Growth IWF anchor the laggard set. The aligned field favors income, quality, and ex-US exposure over U.S. growth.

Fixed-income cross-timescale alignment is 41%, and Long Treasuries TLT crossed above both its 20D MA and its 20D ratio MA versus Aggregate Bonds AGG, while 3-7yr Treasuries IEI and Int. Treasuries VGIT regained their 20D MA but fell below their 20D ratio MA versus AGG. The duration split rewards long duration more than the intermediate Treasury segment.

FEATURED ETF: iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	-1.95%
Cross-up	XLF	Financial Select Sector	+2.36%
Cross-down	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	+4.18%
Cross-down	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+3.85%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+3.64%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+3.55%
Cross-down	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	+3.34%
Cross-down	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+3.30%
Cross-down	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	+2.03%
Cross-down	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	+1.73%
Cross-down	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	+1.25%
Cross-down	MCHI	iShares MSCI China ETF	+1.23%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	+0.77%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	-5.08%
Cross-up	XLRE	The Real Estate Select Sector	-4.10%
Cross-up	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	-2.38%
Cross-up	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	-1.79%
Cross-up	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	-1.30%
Cross-up	XLF	Financial Select Sector	-0.91%
Cross-up	DIA	SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF	-0.81%
Cross-up	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	-0.28%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+0.24%
Cross-down	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	-1.23%
Cross-down	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	-1.52%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	-1.02%
Cross-up	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-up	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	+0.12%
Cross-up	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	+0.28%
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	+0.32%
Cross-up	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.36%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	-1.23%
Cross-down	VCSH	Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	+0.32%
Cross-down	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.16%
Cross-down	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	unch.

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-1.43%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-4.58%
Cross-up	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	-2.00%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.