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Tactical Trends: Ex-US Equity Deteriorates on the 20-Day Signal
Only 10 of 58 equity ETFs beat S&P 500 SPY; the gap is 23pp
International and emerging-market weakness defines the ETF universe at the close on October 8. Emerging markets EEM and global equities VT crossed below their 20-day moving averages (20D MA). Equity breadth across the coverage places 24 of 59 ETFs (41%, +1.7pp on the day) above their 20D MA, and relative breadth places 10 of 58 (17%, +1.7pp) above their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY, a 23pp price-relative gap. The 10 relative winners concentrate in US growth, quality, energy, and two defensive sectors. The 48 laggards concentrate in developed ex-US, emerging markets, and low-volatility equity.
Fixed income leadership is limited to short duration and global bonds BNDX. Short duration places 2 names above their price averages, and long duration places 0. Seven of 16 beat the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Intermediate Treasuries and investment grade VCIT outperform the benchmark despite prices below their own averages.
Specialty leadership is limited to semiconductors, long/short equity, and min-volatility equity vs the S&P 500 SPY, with semiconductors SMH in the leader cluster. Broad commodities PDBC crossed above its 20D MA. Silver and copper fill the commodity laggard cluster.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin IBIT, up 5.91% over the past 20 sessions, crossed below its 20D MA. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed below its 20-day ratio moving average (20D ratio MA) after a 3.45% relative gain over the same window.
Taiwan EWT, up 1.64% over the past 20 sessions vs the S&P 500 SPY, crossed below its 20D ratio MA. Equal Weight S&P 500 RSP trades above its price average and below its ratio moving average vs the benchmark. Equity alignment across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes is 42%.
High Yield HYG and High Yield Bonds JNK crossed below their 20D ratio MA vs AGG. Intermediate Treasuries and Investment Grade VCIT outperform the benchmark despite prices below their own averages.
Featured ETF: iShares Bitcoin IBIT
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF | -1.67% |
| Cross-up | SDY | SPDR S&P Dividend ETF | -1.37% |
| Cross-up | ACWV | iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF | -0.28% |
| Cross-up | RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | -0.24% |
| Cross-up | SPYV | S&P 500 Value ETF | unch. |
| Cross-up | XLP | Consumer Staples Select Sector | +1.06% |
| Cross-down | XLV | Health Care Select Sector | +1.90% |
| Cross-down | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | +0.91% |
| Cross-down | VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF | +0.38% |
| Cross-down | VLUE | iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -1.34% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLP | Consumer Staples Select Sector | -1.29% |
| Cross-up | XLE | Energy Select Sector | -1.27% |
| Cross-down | EWT | iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | +1.64% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | BNDX | Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF | +0.16% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | JNK | SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF | -0.32% |
| Cross-down | HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | -0.32% |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | IBIT | iShares Bitcoin | +5.91% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | USMV | iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF | -0.99% |
| Cross-up | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | -0.24% |
| Cross-down | IBIT | iShares Bitcoin | +3.45% |
| Cross-down | MTUM | iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF | +2.45% |
Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | PDBC | Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | -1.99% |
| Cross-down | CPER | United States Copper LP | +1.08% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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