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October 8, 2026
2 min read
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Ethereum Trust ETHA Sank 4.13%

Thursday delivered a defensive rotation. Crypto weakened.

Defensives led, North Asia weakness deepened

Movers

Leaders: Energy XLE +2.97% (3M: +19.2%), Consumer Staples XLP +2.11% (3M: -0.2%)

Laggards: South Korea EWY -4.03% (3M: -3.9%), Taiwan EWT -2.49% (3M: +6.7%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Energy XLE +19.2%, Brazil EWZ +18.5%, Copper Miners COPX +7.4%

Weak: Utilities XLU -8.9%, India INDA -7.6%, Real Estate XLRE -7.3%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 equity ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 8 Oct 2026; ending at XLE Energy +19.2%, EWT Taiwan +6.7%, XLP Consumer Staples -0.2%, EWY South Korea -3.9%

Duration rallied, high-yield lagged

Movers

Leaders: Long Treasuries TLT +0.93% (3M: -6.7%), Mortgage-Backed MBB +0.57% (3M: -3.2%)

Laggards: High Yield HYG -0.05% (3M: -1.8%), High Yield Bonds JNK -0.03% (3M: -1.7%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Short TIPS VTIP -0.4%, Short Corporate VCSH -0.5%, Global Bonds BNDX -1.7%

Weak: Long Treasuries TLT -6.7%, Muni Bonds MUB -5.1%, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB -3.9%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 fixed income ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 8 Oct 2026; ending at JNK High Yield Bonds -1.7%, HYG High Yield -1.8%, MBB Mortgage-Backed -3.2%, TLT Long Treasuries -6.7%

Real assets led, crypto and semis lagged

Movers

Leaders: Gold Miners GDX +1.47% (3M: +14.8%), Real Estate VNQ +0.74% (3M: -7.4%)

Laggards: Ethereum Trust ETHA -4.13% (3M: +37.2%), Semiconductors SMH -2.84% (3M: -0.6%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Ethereum Trust ETHA +37.2%, Bitcoin Trust IBIT +27.7%, Gold Miners GDX +14.8%

Weak: Clean Energy ICLN -11.1%, Global REITs REET -7.5%, Real Estate VNQ -7.4%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 specialty ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 8 Oct 2026; ending at ETHA Ethereum Trust +37.2%, GDX Gold Miners +14.8%, SMH Semiconductors -0.6%, VNQ Real Estate -7.4%

Technical Signals

AssetSetupInstrumentsRead
EquityExhaustion RiskBrazil EWZ3M leaders, flashing overbought
Volatility CompressionGlobal Min Vol ACWV, Copper Miners COPX, South Korea EWY
OverboughtBrazil EWZ
OversoldIndia INDA
Fixed IncomeCounter-trend RallyLong Treasuries TLTtop mover today +0.93%, 3M laggard -6.7%
Volatility ExpansionAggregate Bonds AGG, Global Bonds BNDX, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB
SpecialtyCounter-trend RallyReal Estate VNQ2nd-strongest today +0.74%, 3M laggard -7.4%
Trend-break RiskEthereum Trust ETHAtop decliner today -4.13%, 3M leader +37.2%
Reversal SetupClean Energy ICLNvol compression building in 3M underperformers
Volatility CompressionGold Miners GDX, Clean Energy ICLN, Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ
Volatility ExpansionManaged Futures DBMF

Exhaustion Risk: in our top three over three months, with its RSI above 70.
Counter-trend Rally: one of the day's two strongest, and in our bottom three over three months.
Trend-break Risk: one of the day's two weakest, and in our top three over three months.
Reversal Setup: in our bottom three over three months, with volatility more than 1 standard deviation below its own norm.

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Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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