Tactical Trends: US Growth Retakes Leadership as Global Rebounds Lag

Price recovery is broad; relative winners narrow to US growth

Technology leadership dominates at the close on August 4, even as global and low-volatility equity groups hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA). In equity, 58 of 59 ETFs (98%, +6.8pp on the day) hold above their 20D MA. Only 11 of 58 (19%, -17.2pp) hold above their 20-day ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY), a 79pp price-relative gap. Technology and growth lead the relative winners, while developed ex-US, emerging markets, and low-volatility names fill the recovery-without-relative-leadership bucket. The equity configuration resembles a narrow, benchmark-led advance; international and defensive rebounds lack relative confirmation.

Fixed income leadership concentrates in credit and intermediate duration. Fourteen of 17 ETFs hold above their 20D MA, and credit, mortgages, and intermediate Treasuries outperform the Aggregate Bonds AGG, while TIPS, municipals, and Treasury 20+ Year TLT lag. The bond cross-section favors credit and belly duration. Long-duration rate sensitivity is the weak pocket.

Specialty leadership clusters in semiconductors, precious metals, and US factor exposure, with 12 of 15 ETFs above their 20D MA. Only gold miners and infrastructure beat the S&P 500 SPY, and real estate is the weak pocket. Gold GLD moved above its 20D MA as Broad Commodities PDBC fell below it, so the specialty and commodity mix favors selective hard-asset strength over broad commodity beta.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

South Korea EWY, down 5.60% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20-day moving average. Taiwan EWT and emerging markets EEM also crossed above their 20D MA. South Korea, Taiwan, and other international rebounds hold below their 20D ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY. The regional move is a price recovery without benchmark-relative leadership.

US Technology IYW and Nasdaq 100 QQQ crossed above their 20D ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY, and Technology XLK paired a price cross with a relative cross after a 4.31% 20-day return. Equity alignment reaches 92% across daily, weekly, and monthly windows. The aligned relative leaders concentrate in US growth. The leadership cluster is narrow and consistent across timescales.

7-10yr Treasuries IEF, Investment Grade Credit LQD, and Mortgage-Backed MBB crossed above both their 20D MA and their 20D ratio MA versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG. TIPS TIP and Short TIPS VTIP crossed below their 20D ratio MA versus AGG, and Treasury 20+ Year TLT is the fixed-income cross-timescale laggard. Bond leadership concentrates in intermediate duration and credit. Inflation-linked and long-duration rate sensitivity lag.

FEATURED ETF: iShares MSCI South Korea ETF EWY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	-5.60%
Cross-up	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	+0.32%
Cross-up	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	+0.43%
Cross-up	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+4.31%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-1.09%
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	-0.71%
Cross-up	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+1.03%
Cross-up	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+1.11%
Cross-down	XLE	Energy Select Sector	+3.82%
Cross-down	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	+2.61%
Cross-down	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	+1.22%
Cross-down	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	+1.00%
Cross-down	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	+0.84%
Cross-down	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+0.57%
Cross-down	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	+0.11%
Cross-down	XLF	Financial Select Sector	+0.10%
Cross-down	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-down	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	-0.12%
Cross-down	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	-0.57%
Cross-down	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	-0.70%
Cross-down	XLY	Consumer Discretionary Select Sector	-2.32%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.61%
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	-0.31%
Cross-up	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	-0.21%
Cross-up	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.14%
Cross-up	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	-0.10%
Cross-up	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	unch.
Cross-up	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.40%
Cross-up	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.
Cross-up	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.23%
Cross-down	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	unch.

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	-4.60%
Cross-up	IBB	iShares Biotechnology ETF	-4.08%
Cross-up	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	-0.99%
Cross-up	GLD	SPDR Gold	-0.88%
Cross-up	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	+0.29%
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+0.66%
Cross-down	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	+0.71%
Cross-down	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	+0.53%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	-1.14%
Cross-down	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	+3.55%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.