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Tactical Trends: US Growth and North Asia Stand Alone in Equity
Weak absolute and relative breadth leave few equity leaders
Equity leadership stays with US growth and North Asia at the close on September 29, with 10 of 59 ETFs (17%, unchanged on the day) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 9 of 58 (16%, +1.7pp) above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. The 1pp price-relative gap keeps weakness synchronized across price and relative terms. Technology, quality, and North Asia supply most of the leaders. Low-volatility, developed ex-US, and emerging-markets funds dominate the laggards.
Fixed income leadership is limited to short duration, intermediate Treasuries, and International Aggregate BNDX relative to the Aggregate Bonds AGG, and 0 of 17 ETFs trade above their 20D MA. High Yield HYG and High Yield Bonds JNK crossed below their ratio MA vs AGG. High yield, investment grade, and long duration fill the laggard side.
Specialty leadership clusters in semiconductors, momentum, and crypto-linked exposure, with 8 of 15 names above their 20D MA. Gold, clean energy, and real estate lag the S&P 500 SPY. Commodities split between copper above its price MA and ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY and energy below both measures.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Cross-timescale equity alignment is 37%, concentrated in North Asia and US growth. South Korea EWY crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY after a 3.58% relative gain over the trailing 20-day window. China, India, and low-volatility exposure align on the lagging side across daily, weekly, and monthly windows.
Cross-timescale fixed-income alignment is 100%. Relative strength vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG is confined to International Aggregate BNDX, short duration, and intermediate Treasuries. The lagging side includes high yield, investment grade, and long duration.
Oil USO, up 7.22% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20D MA. Copper CPER crossed above its 20D MA and its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY.
Featured ETF: United States Oil Fund LP USO
Technical Signals
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | +3.58% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | JNK | SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF | -0.20% |
Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | CPER | United States Copper LP | -0.18% |
| Cross-down | USO | United States Oil Fund LP | +7.22% |
Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | CPER | United States Copper LP | unch. |
| Cross-down | USO | United States Oil Fund LP | +7.35% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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