Tactical Trends: US Growth and Asia Stand Alone in a Weak Equity Field

Another breadth drop leaves few confirmed equity leaders

Equity leadership contracts to US growth, energy, and Asia at the September 18 close, with 10 of 59 ETFs (17%, -3.4pp on the day) above their 20-day moving averages (20D MA) and only 11 of 58 (19%, -5.2pp) outperforming the S&P 500 SPY on a ratio-MA basis. Japan EWJ and Taiwan EWT anchor the leader cluster, while developed ex-US income, low-volatility, and smaller-cap US exposures fill the laggard side. The equity cross-section sits in a broad bear regime, with participation and leadership both scarce.

All 17 bond ETFs trade below their 20-day averages, and EM Sovereign Bonds EMB and long duration TLT join credit and short duration in the relative winner group vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Intermediate Treasuries, mortgages, and municipals fill the laggard side. Bond strength is relative and concentrates in credit plus the duration extremes.

Specialty leadership centers on crypto proxies and semiconductors, while clean energy and real estate lag the S&P 500 SPY. Copper CPER and Silver SLV crossed above their averages. Strength outside core equity is selective.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Ethereum ETHA, up 13.50% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed above its ratio MA, and three specialty ETFs align on daily, weekly, and monthly relative strength. Specialty leadership concentrates in crypto proxies and one equity-income name.

Emerging markets EEM crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY even as emerging-markets price action stays below its own average. Equity cross-timescale alignment is 32%, and the laggard cluster spans low-volatility, developed ex-US, and smaller-cap US exposures. The equity drawdown is broad, with only selective relative resilience.

EM Sovereign Bonds EMB and Short TIPS VTIP crossed above their ratio MAs vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG, and fixed-income cross-timescale alignment is 88%. The relative leader group mixes EM debt, high yield, and the duration extremes, while intermediate Treasuries and mortgages lag. Bond leadership splits between credit and duration rather than broad price strength.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ETHA

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+0.12%
Cross-down	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	-1.03%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	+0.74%
Cross-down	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+0.24%
Cross-down	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	-0.31%
Cross-down	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.91%
Cross-down	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	-1.50%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.15%
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	+0.30%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+11.70%
Cross-up	ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	+13.50%
Cross-down	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	-0.40%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+11.83%
Cross-up	ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	+13.64%
Cross-down	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	-0.28%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	-2.81%
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	+2.24%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	-2.69%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.