Tactical Trends: US and Developed Equity Break Lower, EM Leads

Overseas pockets resist a broad weak equity field

Equity breadth broke lower into the September 9 close, with only 13 of 59 ETFs (22%, -8.5pp) above their 20-day moving averages (20D MA) and 20 of 58 (34%, -6.9pp) above their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. Emerging Markets EEM and Asia-Pacific exposures led the shrinking group of price leaders, and Nasdaq 100 QQQ joined developed-market laggards. The negative 12pp price-relative gap shows defensive relative strength within a broad weak equity field.

Fixed income prices sit uniformly below their 20-day averages, with 0 of 17 above. Relative winners fell to 7 of 16 ETFs (44%, -12pp) vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG and cluster in credit and short-duration inflation-linked exposure. Bond leadership concentrates in credit and short duration. Rate sensitivity lags.

Specialty leadership centers in alternatives, crypto-linked equity, and semiconductors, with 9 of 15 ETFs (60%, +7pp) above their price MAs and the same 9 beating the S&P 500 SPY. Precious metals and oil define the firmer commodity pockets. Non-equity upside is selective.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Emerging Markets EEM, Japan EWJ, and Taiwan EWT align as absolute and relative leaders across the daily, weekly, and monthly windows, while Europe and domestic defensive sectors fill the laggard cluster. The 31% cross-timescale alignment keeps equity leadership narrow and concentrated overseas.

Long Treasuries TLT crossed below both its 20D MA and its ratio MA vs Aggregate Bonds AGG, and Preferred Stock PFF crossed below its ratio MA. Short TIPS VTIP fell below its price average but ranks in the relative leader cluster with credit. The bond split favors credit and short duration, and duration beta loses ground.

Silver SLV, up 3.71% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed above its 20D MA, and Managed Futures DBMF crossed above both thresholds. Non-equity upside concentrates in metals and alternatives.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Silver SLV

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	+0.21%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+0.18%
Cross-down	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-0.30%
Cross-down	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	-1.58%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+0.67%
Cross-down	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	unch.
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	-0.36%
Cross-down	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	-0.53%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.12%
Cross-down	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.18%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.13%
Cross-down	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-0.55%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	unch.

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+1.07%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	+3.71%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	+4.82%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.