Tactical Trends: Technology Cracks as Value and Low Volatility Hold Ground

Equity leaders shrink to 11 of 59 as defense displaces growth

Growth leadership broke into the September 1 close, with Technology XLK and US Technology IYW crossing below their 20-day moving average (20D MA)s. Across our ETF universe, 11 of 59 equity ETFs (19%, -8.5pp on the day) hold above their 20D MA, and 22 of 58 (38%, -10.3pp) beat the S&P 500 SPY on a 20-day ratio basis. Low-volatility, value, and emerging markets exposures occupy the leader cluster, while US growth, developed ex-US, and momentum fill the laggard side. Equity breadth reads as a broad bear regime.

Fixed income shows no price participation, with 0 of 17 ETFs above their 20D MA at the close. Relative leaders vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG cluster in high yield, TIPS, short duration, and intermediate to long Treasuries, while EM debt, preferreds, and municipals lag. Bond leadership is comparative and split between rate sensitivity and selective credit.

Specialty leadership is limited to alternative beta, biotech, and crypto-linked exposures, with 6 of 15 ETFs above their 20D MA at the close. Commodities lean away from precious and industrial metals, with Silver SLV below its price average and Copper CPER below its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Oil and broad commodity exposure define the 60% cross-timescale leader cluster. Specialty and commodity leadership concentrates outside metals beta.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Gold Miners GDX, up 21.50% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20D MA. GDX also outperforms the S&P 500 SPY on a 20-day ratio basis, and it is the only specialty ETF with price below its average and relative strength above benchmark. Specialty weakness reaches prior leaders first, and relative leadership is narrower than the absolute drawdown.

Taiwan equity EWT, Value Factor VLUE, and Energy XLE lead the S&P 500 SPY across daily, weekly, and monthly horizons. Technology XLK, Nasdaq 100 QQQ, and Developed Markets VEA lost 20-day relative strength on the session, and equity cross-timescale alignment is 20%. Multi-horizon leadership is narrow and concentrated in value, Taiwan, and energy.

Global Bonds BNDX, TIPS TIP, and Int. Treasuries VGIT crossed above their ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. High yield credit also occupies the relative leader cluster. Investment Grade Credit LQD lost its ratio MA vs the benchmark, and fixed-income cross-timescale alignment is 76%. Bond leadership splits between duration and selective credit, with confirmation concentrated in ratios.

FEATURED ETF: VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+6.25%
Cross-down	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	+0.86%
Cross-down	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	-0.91%
Cross-down	XLK	Technology Select Sector	-1.74%
Cross-down	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	-2.21%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-1.45%
Cross-up	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+1.01%
Cross-up	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	+1.11%
Cross-down	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+7.58%
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	+1.39%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+1.10%
Cross-down	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	+0.33%
Cross-down	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	+0.18%
Cross-down	XLF	Financial Select Sector	unch.
Cross-down	XLK	Technology Select Sector	-0.51%
Cross-down	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	-0.99%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-1.01%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	JNK	SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	-0.56%
Cross-down	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	-0.57%
Cross-down	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	-1.15%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	-0.30%
Cross-up	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-up	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	+0.31%
Cross-up	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	+0.69%
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.54%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	+21.50%
Cross-down	GLD	SPDR Gold	+6.04%
Cross-down	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	-0.94%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	GLD	SPDR Gold	+7.37%
Cross-down	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	+0.30%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	SLV	iShares Silver	+7.58%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	SLV	iShares Silver	+8.93%
Cross-down	CPER	United States Copper LP	-1.45%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.