Tactical Trends: Growth Reclaims the Lead as Relative Breadth Thins

66% equity price participation and a 45pp gap keep leadership selective.

Equity leadership rotated back to growth on July 14 after Russell Growth IWF and S&P Growth SPYG crossed above their 20-day ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY). Across our ETF universe, 39 of 59 equity ETFs (66%, +11.9pp) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), but only 12 of 58 (21%, -10.3pp) hold above their 20D ratio MA vs benchmark, a +45pp price-relative gap. Financials, energy, and selected China exposure lead the relative winners, while dividend, equal-weight, and low-volatility exposures lag; the equity advance resembles a benchmark-led move.

Fixed income leadership concentrates in credit and stability: only 3 of 17 bond ETFs hold above their 20D MA, and the relative winners vs Aggregate Bonds AGG cluster in high yield, mortgages, and short duration. Duration-heavy Treasuries, investment grade, and EM debt lag, so bond participation favors lower-duration income exposure.

Specialty leadership centers on crypto and biotech, with Bitcoin Trust IBIT above both its 20D MA and its 20D ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY, while real estate and low-volatility overlays lag on a price-recovery, no-leadership profile. Copper crossed above its 20D ratio MA vs SPY, and silver lagged; alternative and commodity leadership is selective.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Developed markets EFA and Japan EWJ crossed above their 20-day moving averages, yet developed ex-US equity lags S&P 500 SPY in the relative breadth map, and EFA sits in the cross-timescale laggard cluster. The international rebound is a price recovery without durable relative leadership.

Mortgage-backed MBB and preferred stock PFF crossed above their 20-day ratio moving averages versus Aggregate Bonds AGG, and the cross-timescale relative leaders cluster centers on short duration and other income sectors. 7-10 year Treasuries IEF and investment-grade duration occupy the laggard side, so fixed-income relative strength favors lower-duration income exposure.

Crosses in specialty and commodities skewed toward stabilization. Copper CPER, down 4.11% relative to SPY over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average. Bitcoin Trust IBIT also crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average versus S&P 500 SPY, while Global REITs REET crossed below its own. The non-core leadership pocket centers on crypto and copper.

FEATURED ETF: United States Copper LP CPER vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	-0.13%
Cross-up	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	+0.40%
Cross-up	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+0.40%
Cross-up	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	+0.56%
Cross-up	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+0.68%
Cross-up	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+1.40%
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	+1.42%
Cross-up	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+1.82%
Cross-down	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	-2.11%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	MCHI	iShares MSCI China ETF	-3.83%
Cross-up	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	-3.76%
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	-0.20%
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	+0.60%
Cross-down	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	+1.72%
Cross-down	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	+1.61%
Cross-down	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	unch.
Cross-down	RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	-0.37%
Cross-down	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	-0.52%
Cross-down	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	-0.69%
Cross-down	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	-0.71%
Cross-down	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	-1.08%
Cross-down	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	-1.08%
Cross-down	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	-2.69%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	JNK	SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	+0.14%
Cross-up	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	+0.14%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-0.91%
Cross-up	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.
Cross-down	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	unch.

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+1.50%
Cross-up	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	+1.60%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	-0.12%
Cross-down	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.43%
Cross-down	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	-0.51%
Cross-down	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	-0.83%
Cross-down	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-1.67%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	-4.11%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.