Tactical Trends: Global Equity Repair Leaves US Growth Behind

Ex-US and defensive groups lead the repair, not core US growth

Equity participation widened at the close as Global Equities VT and Emerging Markets VWO crossed above their 20-day moving average (20D MA). As of June 12, 45 of 59 ETFs (76%, +11.9pp on the day) sit above their 20D MA, and 49 of 58 ETFs (84%, unchanged on the day) outperform the S&P 500 SPY over the same horizon; low-volatility, developed ex-US, emerging markets, and dividend groups lead, while China, Germany, Brazil, energy, and consumer discretionary lag, and several core US growth and global beta exposures sit below price support despite relative outperformance. Equity participation is broad, with 45 of 59 ETFs above their 20D MA, but leadership sits in ex-US, value, and defensive groups rather than core US growth.

Fixed income carried a price rebound, but the relative winners sat in spread product and non-core duration rather than Treasuries. As of June 12, 15 of 17 ETFs (88%, -5.9pp on the day) sit above their 20D MA, yet only 7 of 16 ETFs (44%, +18.8pp on the day) outperform the Aggregate Bonds AGG, a +44pp gap; international aggregate, high yield, investment grade, munis, and long duration lead the benchmark, while Treasury duration, short duration, and short TIPS lag. The bond move concentrated in spread product and selective duration rather than a uniform advance.

Specialty participation improved as Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ and Min Volatility USMV crossed above their 20D MA. As of June 12, 8 of 15 ETFs (53%, +13.3pp on the day) sit above their 20D MA, and 9 of 15 ETFs (60%, unchanged on the day) outperform the S&P 500 SPY; semiconductors, infrastructure, REITs, and momentum lead, while bitcoin, gold miners, gold, and managed futures lag. Commodities show no fresh confirmed crossover events. The specialty and commodity mix favors semiconductors, infrastructure, REITs, momentum, and copper over bitcoin, gold, silver, and agriculture.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

• Copper Miners COPX, with a -3.82% period return, crossed above its 20-day moving average. COPX also crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average versus S&P 500 SPY after a negative 20-day relative return. The COPX signal pairs price repair with relative stabilization, and the cross-timescale grid places copper-linked equity beta in aligned leadership.

• Global Bonds BNDX, High Yield Bonds JNK, and Muni Bonds MUB crossed above their 20-day ratio moving average versus Aggregate Bonds AGG. EM debt, investment grade, mortgage-backed securities, and long duration sit on the relative leadership list. Bond leadership favors credit and diversifying duration; core Treasury duration does not lead.

• Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ and Min Volatility USMV crossed above their 20-day moving average, and cross-timescale alignment in specialty sits at 80%. Semiconductors, infrastructure, REITs, and momentum sit on the leadership side. Bitcoin, gold miners, gold, and managed futures lag in both price and relative terms. Specialty leadership concentrates in equity-sensitive implementations, and commodity confirmation sits in copper rather than across the complex.

FEATURED ETF: Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

• COPX - Global X Copper Miners ETF · 20D perf: -3.82%

• IDV - iShares International Select Dividend ETF · -0.98%

• XLU - Utilities Select Sector · -0.82%

• VWO - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets · -0.68%

• INDA - iShares MSCI India ETF · unch.

• VT - Vanguard Total World Stock · +0.17%

• XLK - Technology Select Sector · +2.95%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

• COPX - Global X Copper Miners ETF · 20D relative perf: -2.98%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

• EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF · 20D relative perf: +1.01%

FIXED INCOME

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

• VTIP - Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities · 20D perf: -0.12%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs AGG)

• MUB - iShares National Muni Bond ETF · 20D relative perf: +0.17%

• JNK - SPDR® Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF · +0.21%

• BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond · +0.38%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs AGG)

None on the close

SPECIALTY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

• JEPQ - JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF · 20D perf: +0.68%

• USMV - iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF · +0.91%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

COMMODITIES

No event on the close

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.