Tactical Trends: Equity Recovery Spreads as Relative Leaders Thin

Recovered names lag SPY, with strength clustered in dividend and cyclicals.

Equity price participation at the close on July 15 is firmer across our ETF universe, with 40 of 59 ETFs (68%, +1.7pp) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and only 10 of 58 (17%, -3.5pp) above their 20-day ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY), a 51pp price-relative gap. Low-volatility, US equity, and developed ex-US names anchor the price side. Dividend, sector cyclicals, and China define the relative winners. The configuration resembles a narrow, benchmark-led advance because price recovery runs far ahead of benchmark outperformance.

Fixed income leadership concentrates in high-yield credit, short duration, and intermediate Treasuries, with 12 of 16 beating the Aggregate Bonds AGG and only six of 17 above their 20D MA. Long duration and core aggregate bonds fill the price laggards. The bond cross-section favors stability and intermediate rate exposure over long duration risk.

Crypto and biotech lead specialty, with only 3 of 15 beating the S&P 500 SPY. Managed Futures DBMF and Min Volatility USMV sit in the price-recovery-without-leadership cluster. Commodities add little confirmation because silver lags across timeframes, while copper and agriculture hold the firmer price positions. Specialty and commodity leadership is selective.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Growth SLYG, up 2.24% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20-day moving average. Small-cap growth regains price participation. The relative field in equity is tighter than the price field.

7-10yr Treasuries IEF, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB, and Corporate Credit VCIT crossed above their 20D ratio MA vs Aggregate Bonds AGG, and Global Bonds BNDX and Muni Bonds MUB crossed below it. Bond relative strength splits between intermediate duration and selective credit. Long duration does not share the lead.

Specialty alignment is 53%, and Managed Futures DBMF crossed below its 20D ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY as Min Volatility USMV crossed below its 20D MA. Biotech and crypto define the stronger specialty cluster. Metals and low-volatility alternatives lag the field.

FEATURED ETF: SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF SLYG

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	-2.12%
Cross-up	XLY	Consumer Discretionary Select Sector	-1.12%
Cross-up	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	-0.81%
Cross-up	SLYG	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF	+2.24%
Cross-down	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	+1.72%
Cross-down	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	+0.58%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	-0.60%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-down	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	-0.88%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-1.72%
Cross-up	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-up	VCSH	Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	-0.22%
Cross-up	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-up	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.18%
Cross-down	MUB	iShares National Muni Bond ETF	+0.27%
Cross-down	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	+0.12%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.26%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+0.61%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.