Tactical Trends: Equity Reclaims the 20D MA, Cross-Section Lags SPY

Price participation outruns SPY-relative follow-through by 55 points

Equity prices closed back above the 20D MA across our ETF universe on August 3, with 54 of 59 ETFs (92%, +22.0pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA). Only 21 of 58 ETFs (36%, -19.0pp) hold above their 20-day ratio moving average versus S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY), a 55pp price-relative gap. Relative leadership concentrates in developed ex-US, China, India, and selective value and quality exposures; U.S. size, momentum, and emerging markets lag. The equity profile pairs broad price recovery with narrow relative confirmation.

Fixed income leadership concentrates in 6 of 17 ETFs above their 20D MA. Global Bonds BNDX and High Yield HYG crossed above their 20D MA. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB beat Aggregate Bonds AGG from below its own average, and long duration plus mortgages lag. Bond participation favors credit and front-end duration, while rate-sensitive duration lacks price confirmation.

Specialty leadership is narrow. Gold Miners GDX and Infrastructure PAVE beat the S&P 500 SPY, while crypto, real estate, and oil lag the benchmark. Specialty and commodity leadership concentrates in miners, infrastructure, and copper, while oil and silver lag.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

S&P SmallCap Value SLYV, S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG, and S&P Growth SPYG crossed above their 20D ratio MA versus S&P 500 SPY, while Equal Weight S&P 500 RSP, Developed Markets VEA, and Emerging Markets VWO crossed below. Cross-timescale alignment places value, quality, and selective small-cap exposure in the stronger relative cluster.

EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed above its 20D ratio MA versus Aggregate Bonds AGG even though price is below its 20D MA, and the same defensive relative profile appears in intermediate Treasuries and inflation-linked credit. High Yield Bonds JNK joined High Yield HYG above their 20D MA, so bond strength clusters in credit and shorter duration.

Oil USO, up 17.03% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20-day moving average. USO also crossed below its 20D ratio MA versus S&P 500 SPY, Broad Commodities PDBC did the same, and Gold Miners GDX plus Infrastructure PAVE hold the only specialty relative up-crosses. Hard-asset leadership narrows to miners and copper.

FEATURED ETF: United States Oil Fund LP USO

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-3.15%
Cross-up	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	-2.07%
Cross-up	XLB	Materials Select Sector	-1.87%
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	-1.73%
Cross-up	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	-1.50%
Cross-up	XLI	Industrial Select Sector	-1.29%
Cross-up	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	-0.90%
Cross-up	SLYG	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF	-0.71%
Cross-up	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	-0.67%
Cross-up	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	-0.56%
Cross-up	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	+0.58%
Cross-up	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	+0.72%
Cross-up	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+1.03%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	SLYG	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF	-1.55%
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	unch.
Cross-up	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	+1.22%
Cross-down	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	+1.05%
Cross-down	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	+0.85%
Cross-down	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	+0.80%
Cross-down	MDYV	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF	+0.70%
Cross-down	VO	Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF	+0.22%
Cross-down	RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	+0.13%
Cross-down	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	unch.
Cross-down	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	unch.
Cross-down	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-down	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	-0.16%
Cross-down	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	-0.38%
Cross-down	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	-0.67%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	-2.02%
Cross-down	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	-2.51%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	-0.54%
Cross-up	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	-0.22%
Cross-up	JNK	SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	-0.18%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	-0.15%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	-3.42%
Cross-up	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	-1.84%
Cross-up	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	-0.50%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	-4.23%
Cross-up	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	-1.34%
Cross-down	ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	+3.25%
Cross-down	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	+1.08%
Cross-down	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	+0.48%
Cross-down	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.46%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	+17.03%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	+16.04%
Cross-down	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	+6.24%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.