Tactical Trends: Equity Rebound Runs Ahead of Relative Leadership

Ex-US and low-volatility hold leadership as US beta slips

Equity price participation broadens at the July 31 close, with 41 of 59 ETFs (69%, +8.5pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 32 of 58 (55%, -17.2pp) above their 20-day ratio moving average versus the S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY). Low-volatility, developed ex-US, and China lead the relative winners. Small-cap, growth, and Asia-Pacific lag, and several US dividend and broad-index names hold above their 20D MA without beating the benchmark. The 14pp gap between price participation and relative leadership leaves the equity rebound broader in price than in benchmark-relative confirmation.

Fixed income leadership is confined to stability pockets, with 3 of 17 ETFs above their 20D MA and relative winners versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG concentrated in short duration, intermediate Treasuries, and intermediate investment grade. Long duration, mortgages, and EM debt fill the laggard cluster. The bond cross-section favors lower rate sensitivity over broad duration participation.

Specialty leadership is limited, with 4 of 15 ETFs beating the S&P 500 SPY and the leader cluster confined to low-volatility and real-estate-adjacent exposures. Gold Miners GDX crossed below its 20D MA. Precious metals, bitcoin, semiconductors, and managed futures fill the laggard side. Copper, oil, and broad commodity exposure lead the commodity bucket, so hard-asset participation concentrates away from precious metals.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Equity cross-timescale alignment is 59%, with developed ex-US, United Kingdom equity, and quality leading relative readings across daily, weekly, and monthly frames, while emerging markets, Japan, and US growth lag across the same stack. Multi-horizon leadership concentrates in international and quality exposures.

VCIT crossed above its 20D ratio MA versus AGG, while IEF and MBB crossed below theirs. The bond relative bid concentrates in intermediate credit and shorter duration, with long rate exposure in the laggard cluster.

GDX fell 5.52% over the trailing 20-day window and crossed below its 20-day moving average. GDX also crossed below its 20D ratio MA versus SPY, and SLV crossed below both its 20D MA and 20D ratio MA versus SPY. Precious-metals participation is weak across specialty and commodities.

FEATURED ETF: VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	XLY	Consumer Discretionary Select Sector	-0.88%
Cross-up	DIA	SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF	-0.65%
Cross-up	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	-0.49%
Cross-up	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	-0.20%
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	unch.
Cross-up	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	+0.37%
Cross-down	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	-0.95%
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	-3.04%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	XLY	Consumer Discretionary Select Sector	-1.18%
Cross-up	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	-0.79%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+1.03%
Cross-down	XLRE	The Real Estate Select Sector	+0.57%
Cross-down	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	unch.
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	-0.50%
Cross-down	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	-0.73%
Cross-down	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	-0.98%
Cross-down	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	-1.00%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	-1.10%
Cross-down	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	-1.25%
Cross-down	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	-2.03%
Cross-down	SLYG	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF	-2.14%
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	-3.33%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+2.21%
Cross-down	GLD	SPDR Gold	-1.74%
Cross-down	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	-5.52%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+1.90%
Cross-down	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+1.64%
Cross-down	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	+0.64%
Cross-down	GLD	SPDR Gold	-2.04%
Cross-down	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	-5.81%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	SLV	iShares Silver	-4.83%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	SLV	iShares Silver	-5.12%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.