Tactical Trends: Equity Rebound Outruns SPY Relative Leadership

Price recovery spread faster than leadership vs SPY.

Price participation rebounded across equity at the close on September 3, with 33 of 59 equity ETFs (56%, +25.4pp) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) even as only 21 of 58 held above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY (36%, -8.6pp). Low-volatility, developed ex-US, and Asia-Pacific exposures populate the price leaders. China and small-cap U.S. equity populate the laggard cluster. The 20pp price-relative gap leaves equity in a price rebound with limited relative confirmation.

The fixed income bucket has 0 of 17 ETFs above their 20D MA, and 7 of 16 hold above their ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. EM debt, high yield, inflation-linked bonds, and short duration define the relative leader set. Treasuries, investment grade, and municipals lag the benchmark. Bond leadership concentrates in selective credit and front-end duration.

The specialty bucket has 9 of 15 ETFs above their 20D MA, and relative leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY clusters in crypto-linked names, biotech, and low-volatility overlays, while clean energy, real estate, and semiconductors fill the laggard side. Commodities add hard-asset confirmation through Silver SLV and Gold GLD. Copper holds above its price average without relative leadership. Specialty strength concentrates in precious metals and crypto.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

US Technology IYW crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY, and cross-timescale equity leaders cluster in Japan EWJ, Taiwan EWT, and value exposure. China Large Cap FXI and India INDA crossed below their ratio MA vs SPY. Overseas relative strength is selective.

EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed above its ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG, and the bond leader set pairs with high yield, inflation-linked bonds, and short duration. Long-duration TLT also sits in the relative leader group, while Treasuries IEF and investment grade lag. Bond relative strength mixes credit spread exposure with rate sensitivity.

Silver SLV, up 8.42% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. SLV also crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY, while Managed Futures DBMF crossed below its ratio MA vs SPY. Hard-asset and managed-futures signals diverged.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Silver SLV

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	-0.25%
Cross-up	DIA	SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF	-0.15%
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	unch.
Cross-up	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+0.35%
Cross-up	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	+0.49%
Cross-up	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+0.78%
Cross-up	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	+0.79%
Cross-up	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	+0.79%
Cross-up	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	+0.82%
Cross-up	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+1.15%
Cross-up	XLF	Financial Select Sector	+1.30%
Cross-up	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	+1.62%
Cross-up	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+1.83%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	+1.85%
Cross-up	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+2.89%
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+5.99%
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	+0.86%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-1.70%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+0.18%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+0.55%
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	+0.26%
Cross-down	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	-0.23%
Cross-down	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	-0.42%
Cross-down	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	-0.99%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-2.28%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	unch.

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	+1.74%
Cross-up	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	+1.81%
Cross-up	GLD	SPDR Gold	+5.27%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+0.91%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	-2.09%
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	+8.42%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	+7.77%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.