Tactical Trends: Equity Leadership Narrows to Growth and Developed ex-US

A 69pp equity gap leaves price strength ahead of relative follow-through

Developed ex-US and select growth define equity leadership at the August 6 close, even as 54 of 59 ETFs (92%, -5.1pp on the day) trade above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and only 13 of 58 (22%, -3.5pp) hold above their 20-day ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY). Low-volatility, dividend, and emerging-markets exposures fill the price-above-MA but lagging-benchmark cluster. The 69pp price-relative gap resembles a narrow, benchmark-led advance. The equity cross-section rewards selective leadership. Price participation outruns relative strength.

Fixed income favors credit and short duration, with 10 of 16 ETFs above their 20D ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG and leaders concentrated in EM debt, high yield, and short-duration credit. Intermediate and long Treasuries plus rate-sensitive investment grade fill the laggard side. Bond leadership concentrates in credit and short duration.

Specialty leadership is limited to gold-linked exposure, with Gold GLD one of only two names outperforming the S&P 500 SPY even though 11 of 15 names hold above their 20D MAs. Commodities add a split snapshot, with copper CPER aligned on both price and relative terms and broad commodity baskets in the laggard cluster. Specialty and commodity leadership is concentrated in precious metals and copper.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

South Korea EWY, down 11.17% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20-day moving average. Taiwan EWT, down 5.05% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Asia leadership is selective, with Taiwan stabilizing relative to SPY and South Korea weakening in price.

Energy XLE crossed above its 20D MA after a 6.09% 20-day return. Dow Jones DIA, Industrials XLI, and Materials XLB crossed below their 20D ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. Cyclical participation is uneven, with price recovery in energy and relative slippage across broader U.S. industrial and value exposures.

Short TIPS VTIP crossed above its 20D ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. 7-10yr Treasuries IEF, Investment Grade Credit LQD, and Mortgage-Backed MBB crossed below both their 20D MAs and their 20D ratio MAs vs AGG. Bond leadership concentrates in shorter duration and spread sectors, and rate-sensitive duration lags.

FEATURED ETF: iShares MSCI South Korea ETF EWY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	XLE	Energy Select Sector	+6.09%
Cross-down	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	+2.43%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+1.87%
Cross-down	XLRE	The Real Estate Select Sector	+1.31%
Cross-down	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	-11.17%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	-5.05%
Cross-up	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+1.86%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	+5.24%
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	+1.52%
Cross-down	DIA	SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF	+0.45%
Cross-down	XLI	Industrial Select Sector	-0.22%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.47%
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	-0.50%
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.83%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.36%
Cross-down	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.41%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	+1.23%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	+1.15%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.