Tactical Trends: Equity Breakdown Leaves Only 8% Above 20-Day Averages

The 23pp price-relative gap places relative winners below price MAs.

Price damage defined equities at the close on September 10, with 5 of 59 equity ETFs (8%, -13.6pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 18 of 58 (31%, -3.5pp) above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Energy and Asia-Pacific equity account for four of those five price leaders. The 23pp negative price-relative gap places emerging markets, growth, and value among the below-MA names that still beat the benchmark. The equity regime is broad bear, and the relative winners cluster below price MAs.

Fixed income shows no absolute strength, with 0 of 17 above their 20D MA and 6 of 16 outperforming the Aggregate Bonds AGG on a ratio basis. High yield, short duration, inflation-linked bonds, and 3-7yr Treasuries IEI hold the relative leaders. Long-duration Treasuries and investment grade lag. The bond profile concentrates in shorter duration and selective credit.

Digital assets, managed futures, and clean energy form the specialty leadership cluster, while Semiconductors SMH trades below its 20D MA. Commodities split between oil and broad commodity strength on the multi-horizon grid and fresh breaks lower in Copper CPER and precious metals. The specialty and commodity mix favors energy-linked inflation exposure.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Communication Services XLC crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY after a 3.07% 20-day relative gain, even as Technology XLK and US Technology IYW crossed below their price MAs. Broad technology lacks price confirmation, and relative strength concentrates in communications.

3-7yr Treasuries IEI crossed above its ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG, while Investment Grade Credit LQD and EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed below theirs. High yield, TIPS, and short duration hold the stronger relative cluster, so duration defense and selective credit lead the bond cross-section.

Gold Miners GDX, up 5.57% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20D MA. GDX also crossed below its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY after a 7.62% relative 20-day gain, and Copper CPER and Silver SLV crossed below their price MAs and ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. Metals exposure loses both absolute and relative confirmation.

FEATURED ETF: VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	+1.02%
Cross-down	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	+0.81%
Cross-down	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+0.35%
Cross-down	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	+0.31%
Cross-down	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	-0.43%
Cross-down	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	-0.78%
Cross-down	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	-1.09%
Cross-down	XLK	Technology Select Sector	-1.93%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+3.07%
Cross-down	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+2.29%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	unch.

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	-0.11%
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.17%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	+5.57%
Cross-down	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	+0.20%
Cross-down	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	unch.
Cross-down	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	-3.68%
Cross-down	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	-4.20%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	+7.62%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	CPER	United States Copper LP	-2.45%
Cross-down	SLV	iShares Silver	-2.64%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	CPER	United States Copper LP	-0.56%
Cross-down	SLV	iShares Silver	-0.76%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.