Tactical Trends: Cyclicals and Global Beta Slip Below 20D MAs

Price damage outruns SPY-relative weakness in equities

Equity breakdowns led the ETF universe on August 31, with 16 of 59 ETFs (27%, -22.0pp) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 28 of 58 (48%, +1.7pp) above their 20-day ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY. Low-volatility, emerging markets, and select ex-US equities hold above their 20D MA. Broad US beta, China, and dividend and value exposures crossed below. Nasdaq 100 QQQ and international dividend strength keep the price-relative gap at -21pp. The equity configuration is defensive: price damage outruns benchmark-relative damage, and leadership concentrates in low-volatility, ex-US, and selective growth.

Fixed income leadership is limited to high-yield credit and one long-duration Treasury fund, with 3 of 17 ETFs (18%, -6pp) above their 20D MA. Relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG cluster in high-yield credit, investment grade, and short duration. Treasuries and munis lag. The bond cross-section favors credit stability and lower rate sensitivity.

Specialty leadership centers on gold, bitcoin proxies, and biotech, with 9 of 15 ETFs (60%) above their 20D MA. Clean energy, real estate, and semiconductors lag the S&P 500 SPY. Commodities add an industrial-metal and energy tilt, as Copper CPER crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY and broad commodities and oil align on both price and relative measures. Hard assets, biotech, and bitcoin proxies define the specialty and commodity leaders.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Materials XLB, up 3.29% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20-day moving average. XLB trades below its 20D MA while outperforming the S&P 500 SPY, so its price broke before its relative standing did.

Short Corporate VCSH and Short TIPS VTIP crossed above their 20-day ratio moving average versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG, while Investment Grade Credit LQD crossed below its 20D MA. The bond cross-section rewards lower rate sensitivity and selective credit.

Copper CPER crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average versus the S&P 500 SPY after a down 0.33% relative return over the trailing 20-day window, so the move fits early stabilization. Specialty leadership separates gold, bitcoin proxies, and biotech from clean energy and real estate.

FEATURED ETF: Materials Select Sector XLB

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	+3.29%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+3.20%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+2.65%
Cross-down	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	+2.20%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+1.87%
Cross-down	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	+1.49%
Cross-down	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	+1.44%
Cross-down	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+1.12%
Cross-down	XLF	Financial Select Sector	+0.58%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+0.43%
Cross-down	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	+0.29%
Cross-down	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+0.11%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	-2.13%
Cross-up	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	-0.15%
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+1.13%
Cross-down	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	+0.95%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	-0.80%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	unch.

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	unch.
Cross-up	VCSH	Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	-0.33%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.