Tactical Market Trends: Equity Price Breadth Breaks, Low Vol Leads
22 of 59 hold above their 20-day MA; 43 of 58 still beat SPY
Low-volatility leadership anchors the ETF universe at the close on November 5, after equity price breadth fell to 22 of 59 ETFs (37%, -33.9pp on the day) above their 20-day MA. Relative breadth vs the S&P 500 SPY stays at 43 of 58 ETFs (74%, +1.7pp), widening the negative price-relative gap to 37pp. The leader set concentrates in two low-volatility ETFs, two European country funds led by Germany EWG and United Kingdom EWU, and three China and India exposures. The laggard set clusters in four Asia-Pacific names, two emerging-markets funds, and U.S. growth and technology relative laggards.
Fixed income leadership vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG stays with duration and higher-quality credit. One short-duration ETF and one long-duration Treasury ETF hold above their price MAs, and relative breadth reaches 7 of 16 ETFs (44%). Intermediate and long Treasuries, investment grade, mortgages, and municipals rank ahead of the benchmark. EM debt, high yield, and short duration rank behind it.
Specialty leadership is limited to gold and real estate. Gold GLD crossed above its 20-day MA and its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Crypto and momentum-linked specialty names fill the laggard cluster. Copper, agriculture, and silver align in absolute and relative lagging positions.
Key Takeaways
Ethereum ETHA, down 8.85% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20-day moving average (20D MA). Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed below its 20-day ratio moving average (20D ratio MA).
Dow Jones DIA and Small-Cap IJR crossed below their 20D MA and both remain above their ratio moving averages vs the S&P 500 SPY. The same price-below, ratio-above split extends to developed ex-US and international quality/value equity.
Muni Broad MUB is the only fixed-income name aligned as a relative leader across daily, weekly, and monthly windows. Intermediate Treasuries VGIT crossed above its 20D ratio MA vs AGG, and EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed below its 20D ratio MA.
Featured ETF: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ETHA
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | SPYV | S&P 500 Value ETF | +1.82% |
| Cross-down | VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF | +0.98% |
| Cross-down | SLYV | SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF | +0.97% |
| Cross-down | IQLT | iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF | +0.93% |
| Cross-down | DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF | +0.53% |
| Cross-down | IVLU | iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF | +0.19% |
| Cross-down | IJR | iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | +0.13% |
| Cross-down | JEPI | JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF | +0.11% |
| Cross-down | EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | unch. |
| Cross-down | SLYG | SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF | -0.77% |
| Cross-down | VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF | -1.13% |
| Cross-down | VB | Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF | -1.28% |
| Cross-down | IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | -2.37% |
| Cross-down | VEA | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF | -2.39% |
| Cross-down | QUAL | iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | -3.08% |
| Cross-down | XLI | Industrial Select Sector | -3.52% |
| Cross-down | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | -3.96% |
| Cross-down | VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF | -4.63% |
| Cross-down | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF | -5.02% |
| Cross-down | MDYG | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF | -5.78% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLC | Communication Services Select Sector | -1.70% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | PFF | iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | -3.59% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VGIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF | -0.19% |
| Cross-down | EMB | iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | -0.90% |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | GLD | SPDR Gold | -0.83% |
| Cross-down | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | +4.74% |
| Cross-down | USMV | iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF | +1.73% |
| Cross-down | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | -4.73% |
| Cross-down | ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | -5.72% |
| Cross-down | ETHA | iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | -8.85% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | +0.77% |
| Cross-up | GLD | SPDR Gold | +4.71% |
| Cross-down | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | +0.59% |
| Cross-down | ETHA | iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | -3.76% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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