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Tactical Market Trends: Defensive Equity Rotation Gains Ground
32 of 59 equity ETFs hold above their MA, down 8.5pp at the close
Defensive equity leadership dominates October 22 at the close. In the ETF universe, 32 of 59 equity ETFs (54%, -8.5pp on the day) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), and 37 of 58 outperform the S&P 500 SPY on a ratio basis (64%, +5.2pp). Low-volatility, dividend-oriented US equity, and select developed markets lead. Emerging markets, China, and growth-heavy US equity fill the laggard cluster. Developed markets, small-caps, and quality show a divergence: price below their own averages, ratio above their ratio MAs vs the benchmark.
Fixed income shows broad price participation, with 15 of 17 above their 20-day averages. Relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG are limited to duration, rate-linked sectors, and high-grade credit. Both short-duration funds hold above their 20-day averages. The lone long-duration fund TLT also holds above its 20-day average.
Specialty leadership is limited to Biotech IBB, REITs, and minimum volatility. Bitcoin Trust IBIT and Managed Futures DBMF crossed below their 20-day averages. Commodities leadership concentrates in oil and broad commodities. Silver sits in the laggard cluster.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin IBIT fell 3.66% over the trailing 20-day window and crossed below its 20D MA. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed below its 20-day ratio MA after a 3.25% relative decline over the same window.
Russell 2000 IWM and S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG crossed above their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. IWM is down 1.36% on a 20-day relative basis and trades below its price average. SLYG is up 0.12% on a 20-day relative basis.
High Yield HYG crossed above its 20D MA. Fixed income alignment is 24%, and TIP is the only name that leads vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG across daily, weekly, and monthly readings. Commodities alignment is 60%, with oil and broad commodities in the leader cluster and silver in the laggard cluster.
Featured ETF: iShares Bitcoin IBIT
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | QUAL | iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | +0.91% |
| Cross-down | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF | -0.59% |
| Cross-down | URTH | iShares MSCI World ETF | -0.71% |
| Cross-down | EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | -1.29% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | -1.36% |
| Cross-up | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF | -0.17% |
| Cross-up | SLYG | SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF | +0.12% |
Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | -0.57% |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | -0.25% |
| Cross-down | DBMF | iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | -0.50% |
| Cross-down | IBIT | iShares Bitcoin | -3.66% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | FTLS | First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | +0.17% |
| Cross-down | IBIT | iShares Bitcoin | -3.25% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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